As the first phase of the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls nears its end in Uttar Pradesh, the BJP has a reason for concern: a sizable number of urban voters are opting to shift to their rural addresses, which could create a problem for the party in urban regions that have been its traditional zone of strength.
Taking cognisance of reports of urban voters choosing to opt for rural areas, the state BJP leadership swung into action last week, with Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath instructing all party MPs and MLAs in the state to focus on SIR during an online meeting. Since then, both Deputy CMs, Keshav Prasad Maurya and Brajesh Pathak, state unit president Bhupendra Chaudhary, and general secretary (organisation) Dharampal Singh have been on the move, travelling to various urban constituencies to review SIR work and ask workers to ensure that urban voters retain their voting right in their existing constituency. Sources said the party had asked MPs, MLAs, and office-bearers not to attend any weddings for the next few days, if required, and utilise the time to monitor the SIR exercise. Adityanath on Sunday discussed SIR with party officials and representatives from Saharanpur and Aligarh.
In Lucknow, the BJP assesses that nearly 10-12% of the electorate may shift to rural areas (12% of the 21.73 lakh electorate in the Lok Sabha constituencies equals to 2.6 lakh). Sources said Defence Minister Rajnath Singh, the local MP, had spoken to state BJP president Bhupendra Singh Chaudhary about the issue. Sources said the party’s national president, J P Nadda, had also spoken to the top leaders of the party and asked them to look into the matter.
“There are people in the city who have properties within 20-200 km from here and are keen on shifting their vote to their village address. We are requesting them to retain votes in the city only. Still, if they don’t agree, we will ask them to shift only one member of the family to the village address and maintain that of the others in the city,” said a party leader in the city.
“We are also concerned because urban voters usually don’t show any enthusiasm on the day of polling. If their voting shifts to villages, those urban voters will not travel so far to cast their vote. That could be damaging for us, as several such voters are our supporters,” the leader added.
BJP leaders said they came to know about this shift away from urban constituencies when they enquired about the reasons for the low submission of enumeration forms in some of those seats. Several urban voters who have farms and other immovable properties in their ancestral place in rural areas expressed apprehension about potentially losing ownership rights if they did not remain voters in their villages.
“We have identified these voters and our leaders and Booth Level Agents (BLAs) are contacting them over the phone and meeting personally to convince them that they will face no problems with their village properties if they remain voters in the city,” said a senior BJP leader in Prayagraj, where, according to a party estimate, around 2 lakh voters have opted to shift their votes back to their villages.
In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the Congress won the Allahabad Lok Sabha seat by 58,795 votes. The exit of 2 lakh voters may make it electorally tougher for the BJP to regain its ground in the Assembly polls in 2027, party leaders believe, even if just a quarter of those moving addresses are assumed to be the party’s voters. In Ayodhya (Faizabad Lok Sabha constituency), almost 41,000 voters have opted to shift their address to villages, according to a party estimate.
Top leaders chair meetings
While Dharampal Singh visited Varanasi, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Lok Sabha constituency, on December 3 and held four separate meetings with MLAs, municipal corporators, former candidates of municipal polls, panchayat representatives, and office-bearers, he held similar meetings in Agra and Mathura on December 5. Sources said Singh pulled up some of the leaders for not taking an interest in the SIR exercise.
Bhupendra Chaudhary has held meetings in Ayodhya, Lucknow, Rae Bareli, Amethi, and Jaunpur in the past week, while Keshav Prasad Maurya chaired meetings in Prayagraj, Kaushambi, and Mirzapur in the past four days, and in Jhansi on Sunday. Brajesh Pathak was in Noida and Ghaziabad on Sunday to hold meetings on SIR and had earlier taken stock in Barabanki and Sitapur.
While the BJP has been the dominant force in UP politics since coming to power in 2017, urban areas have always been its strength and this pattern has held in the last few elections, even when it has not performed well. In the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, when the party’s tally almost halved, dropping from 62 in 2019 to 33, the BJP won 12 of the 17 urban constituencies, while three went to the Samajwadi Party (SP) bagged Faizabad (Ayodhya), Firozabad, Moradabad, and the Congress won Allahabad and Saharanpur.
This was a repeat of the BJP’s dominant show in the 2022 Assembly polls when it returned to power, winning 65 of the 86 urban Assembly segments, while the SP won 18, and BJP ally Apna Dal (Soneylal) won three. In 2012, the last time the Opposition won UP, the
BJP won only 47 seats, with urban constituencies making up the majority of its tally at 25.
In the 2023 urban local body polls, the BJP had won all 17 mayoral seats and 57% of the corporator posts in 17 municipal corporations, underlining its urban dominance.