With the second phase of the Bihar Assembly elections drawing to a close, anticipation is mounting across the state as voters and political observers await the release of exit polls. The early projections, due after polling ends on November 11, are expected to offer a preliminary sense of which way the electoral winds may be blowing ahead of the official results on November 14.
Exit polls to reveal early voter trends
These polls, while not definitive, provide an early indication of voter sentiment and potential outcomes, helping parties and analysts gauge which alliances might have gained an edge. The results often set the tone for post-election discussions, even though the final tally can sometimes deliver surprises.
What are exit polls?
Exit polls are surveys conducted immediately after voters leave the polling stations. Unlike pre-election opinion polls that measure intent, these polls capture responses from those who have already cast their ballots. Agencies such as Axis My India, CVoter, and Today’s Chanakya are among the leading organisations that conduct these surveys, offering early insights into possible seat distributions and overall voting patterns.
How exit polls are conducted
Once voting concludes in each constituency, teams of trained field surveyors stationed outside selected polling booths, across regions like Purnia, Gaya Town, and Sitamarhi, approach voters to ask whom they supported and, in some cases, why. Participation is voluntary, and responses are kept anonymous to ensure honesty.
The selected polling booths represent a cross-section of the electorate, covering diverse social and demographic backgrounds. Surveyors also collect additional data such as age, gender, and community to help analysts identify voting trends. The raw data is then processed using statistical models to project vote shares and seat distributions.
The final exit poll results will be released after 6:30 p.m., in line with Election Commission (EC) guidelines, through news channels and social media platforms.
Election Commission’s rules on exit polls
To maintain the integrity of the electoral process, the Election Commission of India enforces strict regulations on exit polls. No survey results can be conducted or broadcast while polling is still underway. The embargo remains in force from the start of the first phase until 30 minutes after the final phase concludes. For Bihar, that means after 6:30 p.m. on November 11.
Any violation of these rules can lead to penalties, including fines or imprisonment for up to two years. Media outlets must also clearly state that exit poll figures are projections, not final results. For official updates and notifications, voters can visit the Election Commission’s website at eci.gov.in