Chennai: Actor-turned-politician Vijay’s electoral prospects remain largely unaffected by the Karur stampede, a confidential survey commissioned by the ruling DMK predicts. The findings, accessed by ThePrint, suggest Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) could secure a vote share of 23 percent if it goes solo in the Tamil Nadu polls next year.
The survey was conducted between 1 and 9 October, in the aftermath of the stampede during Vijay’s rally in Karur that resulted in the loss of 41 lives.
The assessment, accessed by ThePrint, suggests Vijay’s TVK still enjoys strong traction across Tamil Nadu and is likely to emerge as a strong contender to DMK.
The survey covered 2.91 lakh respondents with an average sample size of 1,245 per assembly constituency. Respondents were asked about their views on TVK joining hands with the NDA, and whether they would support Vijay if his party were to go it alone.
In Tamil Nadu, the NDA primarily comprises the BJP and AIADMK.
In a scenario where AIADMK, BJP and TVK join hands under the NDA banner, the confidential survey places DMK at 50 percent vote share, NDA at 35 percent, Seeman’s NTK at 12 percent, and others at 3 percent.
The survey also predicts that though the BJP, AIADMK, and TVK could together consolidate around 35 percent of the vote, internal friction within AIADMK and resistance in Tamil Nadu to the BJP’s ideological leanings could restrict the reach of such an alliance.
In the second scenario, if TVK were to go solo, DMK’s vote share could dip to 45 percent, AIADMK–BJP combine’s to 22 percent, with Vijay’s party cornering 23 percent of the vote. In such a scenario, support for Seeman’s NTK could drop to 5 percent, the survey predicts.
“In the scenario where he (Vijay) contests independently, we could see that he is eating into the vote share of every party in the state,” a strategist who was involved in the survey told ThePrint on condition of anonymity.
Though the survey points to a positive trend for DMK, it also hints that Vijay could be a potential challenger in the long-run. “Public sentiment indicates that Vijay could emerge as a strong challenger to the DMK in 2029 and 2031,” reads the survey report.
The survey, however, was silent on what would happen if the TVK were to join hands with AIADMK, and the two parties were to contest the elections independent of the BJP.
The strategist quoted earlier said such a possibility was discussed internally. “A survey in such a scenario is also being planned, but it largely looks like the fight on the ground seems to be state autonomy vs Union government.”
Another strategist part of the process told ThePrint that Vijay’s popularity appears to be translating into political credibility in some measure. “While we believe TVK currently lacks an organised cadre structure, findings also suggest that his popularity is translating into a vote share and this trend could redefine Tamil Nadu’s political order in the years ahead.”
Although most party members were not aware of the confidential survey, DMK spokesperson and MLA C.V.M.P. Ezhilarasan said its findings reinforce the belief that the 2026 assembly polls could take the form of an ideological battle between DMK and NDA.
“The saffron party always positions itself as the nucleus of an anti-DMK front. While two scenarios in the survey point to a positive trend for DMK, with what happened yesterday in Supreme Court with TVK’s case, the third scenario (AIADMK and TVK), will also be a positive trend for DMK as it would again be a fight between Tamil Nadu and Delhi,” he told ThePrint.
The TVK, on the other hand, went one step further—submitting that its graph would only rise as elections neared. Party spokesperson Raj Mohan told ThePrint that they do not want validation from DMK, since they know Vijay’s credibility among voters is intact.
“Just 48 hours after the Karur stampede incident, we came to know that the people on the ground were with us and our credibility was not damaged. So, we do not want validation from DMK. The credibility and the vote share would increase further in the coming months and the upcoming surveys in November and December will reveal those details,” he said.
The AIADMK, meanwhile, dismissed the findings citing DMK’s ‘lack of credibility’.
A party spokesperson who did not wish to be named told ThePrint that the survey was conducted merely to keep the DMK leadership happy. “When there is no credibility of DMK government’s data, we cannot expect their survey numbers to be credible. Strategy firms were hired by DMK and hence the reports will definitely be given to keep their bosses happy. So, let them be happy with their numbers; election results will show the true data.”
(Edited by Amrtansh Arora)
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