A recent study led by Helge Hellevang at the University of Oslo has provided the most comprehensive explanation to date for this strange geological activity. Drawing from satellite data, field observations, and physical modeling, the team has traced these violent eruptions to a mix of geological, thermal, and climatic conditions converging in a so-called “perfect storm.”
These craters—most notably located on Russia’s Yamal and Gydan peninsulas—pose challenges for detection, safety, and climate risk assessment. While rare, they signify yet another consequence of Arctic warming. Some of them have appeared in areas near infrastructure, raising concerns for workers, gas pipelines, and communities traversing the tundra.
A Pressurized Cocktail of Gas, Ice, and Fractures
The formation of these craters starts with permafrost, ground that remains frozen for at least two consecutive years. In regions where it is thick and undisturbed, it acts as a barrier, trapping methane gas accumulating below. When temperatures rise, that frozen layer begins to weaken. Faults in the underlying rock then provide pathways for the gas to move upward.
According to Earth.com, the new model highlights how a sealed underground cavity—created where deep gas migrates upward and gets trapped under a still-frozen cap—can eventually explode if the pressure exceeds the strength of the overlying permafrost. The thawing is often exacerbated by the formation of taliks—zones of unfrozen ground that appear beneath lakes or rivers and locally thin the frozen layer.
The most dramatic events have left behind steep, vertical shafts surrounded by debris fields that suggest high-pressure ejection rather than slow gas seepage. Observations from the Seyakha crater, for example, show sustained methane emissions continuing for years after the initial blowout in 2017.
A Regional Hotspot for Explosive Craters
The Yamal and Gydan peninsulas, where most of these craters have been documented, sit atop one of the world’s most extensive natural gas basins. The area’s dense network of faults and fractures provides ample channels for gas and heat to travel from the deep subsurface to shallower zones.
Researchers argue that the key trigger is local thinning of the permafrost in zones where taliks intersect with these faults. As a result, a relatively modest increase in pressure is sometimes all it takes to breach the surface layer. Based on the study published in Science of The Total Environment, crater formation is often masked by the rapid filling of the hole with meltwater. Within just a few years, the landscape may resemble an ordinary thermokarst lake, hiding its explosive origin.
Detection is made more difficult by the vast and remote nature of the region. Semi-automated satellite mapping across approximately 126,000 square miles of terrain has shown extensive surface changes and an abundance of lake-like features, many of which may be remnants of past explosions.
Hidden Risks for Infrastructure and Local Communities
Although these craters form in largely uninhabited areas, some have emerged near active gas fields and transport corridors, introducing a set of safety and logistical concerns. Eruptions can throw debris hundreds of feet, ignite briefly, or lead to long-term gas seepage, which may affect air quality and present flammability hazards, especially in enclosed or low-lying areas.
Field crews, pipeline operators, and travelers across the tundra may be at risk from rapid ground collapse or unexpected blowouts. Researchers are now calling for improved mapping techniques and a list of potential warning signs—such as swelling ground, unexpected winter warmth in lake ice, or localized uplift—to help mitigate these dangers.
The authors of the study also stress the need for targeted field data, including drilling and year-round thermal measurements, to better understand which zones are most vulnerable. As noted by Ana Morgado, a chemical engineer at the University of Cambridge and not directly involved in the study, “There are very, very specific conditions that allow for this phenomenon to happen.”