That Karnataka has had 13 Chief Ministers since 2000, some for multiple terms, is reflective of the instability ingrained in the state’s politics.
Completing a full term has been an anomaly, happening only once in these 25 years, between 2013 to 2018, when Siddaramaiah was at the helm. But that was a different time and Siddaramaiah was the unchallenged leader in the Congress. In his second term, the threat to his chair has been present from the start, with Deputy CM and Karnataka Pradesh Congress Committee (KPCC) president D K Shivakumar the other aspirant for the top job.
Since May 2023, his first month in office, legislators from the Shivakumar camp have made remarks about the Deputy CM taking over after the government crosses the halfway mark in its tenure. The Congress high command has reprimanded them time and again, but to no avail.
With the halfway mark nearing, the CM question recently reared its head again. In the past 10 days, a series of comments made by ruling party ministers and legislators stirred the high command into action, with Randeep Singh Surjewala, the Congress’s Karnataka in-charge, holding marathon meetings with MLAs. Following the high command’s intervention, the noise has momentarily quietened.
On Wednesday, Siddaramaiah emphasised he would remain CM for the entire term, and Shivakumar conceded he had no option but to stand by his senior colleague. Surjewala, too, dismissed reports of collecting the legislators’ views about the leadership change.
Despite this, the CM question appears far from settled in the Congress rank and file, with multiple views on how the tussle for the top job may pan out now. While some Congress insiders said that as per the “power-sharing” arrangement, Siddaramaiah was to remain CM for 30 months in total, meaning at least till November end, there is no definitive clarity on that front.
A Congress leader said a Cabinet reshuffle could also be on the cards by the end of the year. “It is no secret that Shivakumar lobbied hard for the CM chair after the Congress’s record win in the 2023 Assembly polls. But the high command chose Siddaramaiah due to his appeal among OBC and minority communities,” said a Congress leader, adding that this factor would weigh heavily on the Congress leadership whenever it considers a transition.
Shivakumar, however, was not left empty-handed despite losing out on the CM chair. Apart from continuing as the Karnataka Congress president, he secured the Deputy CM chair along with the Bengaluru Development and Water Resources portfolios. However, this “concentration of power”, as a leader put it, did not sit well with the Siddaramaiah camp.
Last month, Siddaramaiah and prominent ministers from his camp — K J George, Satish Jarkiholi and H C Mahadevappa — met Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge and sought to replace Shivakumar as state Congress chief. Shortly thereafter, Ramanagara MLA and Shivakumar loyalist Iqbal Hussain said the Deputy CM would replace Siddaramaiah in two months.
Beyond this tussle behind the scenes, a Congress leader conceded that the high command had its task cut out. “While appointing Shivakumar will put Congress in the good books of the Vokkaliga community (that he is from), doing so without an OBC leader to succeed Siddaramaiah will have ramifications in the next elections. For the high command, it is about choosing the least painful option.”
“If Shivakumar continues as KPCC president, then there is little chance of Siddaramaiah stepping down. However, if one of his loyalists is appointed KPCC chief, there could be a window,” the leader said. At present, Jarkiholi, who is a Siddaramaiah loyalist, is tipped to be the next KPCC chief, though the high command has dragged its feet on the issue for months now.
One motivation for Siddaramaiah to continue as CM could also be that he is on the cusp of making history. By next March, he can become the longest-serving Karnataka CM, overtaking D Devaraj Urs, who spent a record seven years and 238 days in office.