After the contentious three-month Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls by the Election Commission in Bihar, the poll body on Monday announced the dates for the much-anticipated state Assembly elections. In a shorter state election this time – to be held over two phases of voting, down from three phases in 2020, five in 2015 and six phases in 2010 – voting will be held on November 6 and 11, with results to be announced on November 14.
The elections are set to test the political resilience of the Chief Minister Nitish Kumar-led Janata Dal (United), whose shifting allegiances between the NDA and Mahagathbandhan have ensured the party has retained its prominence despite its declining seat tallies and vote shares over the last three Assembly elections. Over the last two polls, in particular, the JD(U) has lost considerable ground, both to ally BJP and rival Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD).
Here’s a breakdown of recent elections to Bihar’s 243-member, and where the major parties are placed ahead of polling.
2010 Assembly elections
After 15 years of the Lalu Prasad-Rabri Devi duopoly under consecutive RJD governments since 1990, the 2005 Assembly elections threw up a hung House and plunged Bihar into a period of President’s Rule. Fresh elections were held later that year, and Nitish Kumar emerged victorious to become the CM of the first JD(U)-BJP government in Bihar.
Results of 2010 Assembly polls
After a successful first term at the helm, the JD(U) returned with its biggest mandate to date in the 2010 Assembly polls, securing 115 seats from a 22.58% vote share. Its ally BJP also recorded its best ever showing, winning 91 seats and a 16.49% vote share. As the senior ally this time, the JD(U) had contested 141 seats, leaving the remaining 102 for the BJP.
On the Opposition front, the then RJD-Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) alliance together won just 25 seats – 22 by the RJD and 3 by the then undivided LJP. The RJD’s low tally was despite contesting 168 constituencies and securing the second-highest vote share in the state that year at 18.84%. The LJP contested 75 seats and managed a 6.74% vote share.
The Congress, contesting all 243 seats independently, won just four seats – its lowest since Jharkhand was carved out of Bihar in 2000 – and an 8.37% vote share.
2015 Assembly elections
In the 2015 Assembly polls, the JD(U) struck an alliance with long-time rival RJD, along with the Congress. This was just a year after Nitish had quit the NDA and the JD(U) had contested the 2014 Lok Sabha elections alone.
Results of 2015 Assembly polls
The result was a resounding win for the Mahagathbandhan, which won 178 seats and 41.84% of the vote share, in a big boost for the Opposition still stunned after the 2014 Modi wave BJP win in the Lok Sabha. The RJD was the largest party in the 2015 Assembly polls in terms of seats, at 80, with 18.35% of the votes. The JD(U) wasn’t too far off though, with 71 seats and 16.83% of the votes. Both parties had contested 101 seats each. The Congress, too, performed well, winning 27 of the 41 seats it contested, from 6.66% of the vote share.
The NDA managed a combined 58 seats and 34.08% of the vote share. The BJP won 53 of the 157 seats it contested as the senior member of an alliance comprising minor regional parties. The BJP’s performance though was noteworthy given that it was the clear leader in terms of vote share, at 24.42%, more than 6% points ahead of the RJD.
2020 Assembly elections
In the 2020 Assembly polls, the NDA included the BJP, JD(U), LJP and two smaller parties in the state. The alliance narrowly crossed the 122-seat majority mark, with 125 MLAs and 37.26% of the vote share. What was the most striking aspect of the result was the BJP’s emergence as the party with the second largest number of seats and vote share, at 74 seats (from 110 contested) and 19.46% votes. The JD(U) was the third largest, with 43 seats from 115 contested and 15.39% of the votes, but the BJP let Nitish continue as CM, for his sixth term.
Results of 2020 Assembly polls.
The Mahagathbandhan alliance between the RJD, Congress and Left gave the NDA a tough fight in the 2020 polls, winning 110 seats and 37.23% of the votes (just 0.03% shy of the NDA’s tally). The RJD, in particular, recorded a strong performance, emerging as the largest party, with 75 seats from 144 contested and 23.11% vote share. While the Left parties won 16 seats with 4.64% of the votes, the Congress was the laggard in the alliance, managing just 19 seats out of the 70 it contested and securing 9.48% of the votes.
Less than two years later though, Nitish left the NDA to join the Mahagathbandhan government with the RJD and Congress. But this government was short-lived, with Nitish returning to the NDA fold in January 2024 and forming a new JD(U)-BJP state government, amid friction in the INDIA bloc ahead of the Lok Sabha elections. This was the fourth time in the past decade that Nitish switched sides.
In the current 243-member Bihar Assembly, Nitish-led JD(U) has 45 MLAs and the BJP 78, taking the combine’s tally to 123, with one more Independent expected to support it, taking them over the 122-member majority mark. The RJD along with the Congress and the Left parties have a combined 114 MLAs, eight short of a majority.
The JD(U)’s last-minute switch proved fruitful in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. As the “junior” partner to the BJP this time (contesting 16 seats while the latter contested 17), the JD(U) won 12 seats, as did the BJP. Altogether, the NDA won 30 Parliamentary seats and led in 174 Assembly segments. The Mahagathbandhan managed just nine seats – four for the RJD, three for the Congress and two for the Left – putting the alliance ahead in 62 Assembly segments.