The upcoming by-election for the Anta Assembly seat in Rajasthan’s Baran district has emerged as a crucial test for both the ruling BJP and the opposition Congress, with independent candidate Naresh Meena turning the contest into a triangular one. The outcome, according to observers, could reflect the public mood in the Hadoti region — long known for its swing voting patterns.
The Congress has fielded its veteran face, Pramod Jain Bhaya, a two-time MLA with a strong local base. The BJP has named Morpal Suman, the sitting Pradhan of Baran Panchayat Samiti from the Mali community, while Naresh Meena is contesting as an independent.
Created in 2008, Anta is a general category seat where Bhaya has been Congress’s choice in every election. Since 2008, the seat has swung between the Congress and the BJP, with Bhaya, a Jain leader who hails Baran district, winning two of these four contests – in 2008 and 2018.
In 2023, Kanwarlal Meena from Jhalawar district won the seat but was disqualified after being convicted in a 20-year-old case, leading to the current bypoll.
Apart from the 2023 polls, the BJP won the seat once before – in 2013 – and fielded outsiders both times. Except for Raghuveer Singh Kaushal, all of its other candidates, including Suman, represented the OBC or ST communities.
Unlike other BJP candidates, however, Suman is no “parachute candidate” – a sitting pradhan from Baran Panchayat Samiti, Suman is a low-key but locally influential leader. The pick was prompted by the need for a local face – according to local BJP leaders, although former Anta MLA Prabhulal Saini, an OBC leader from Bundi district, was a strong contender, the party leadership decided against him because his tenure drew criticism for limited development work.
When BJP national general secretary Arun Singh announced Suman’s candidature Friday, there were celebrations in Baran. But the choice has also drawn surprise, with some leaders expecting a more prominent contender to take on Bhaya.
Still, senior leaders believe that the BJP could still have an edge – especially given the presence of Naresh Meena. A former Congress leader, Meena was a contender for a Congress ticket, but having been denied one, is contesting the polls as an independent. BJP leaders believe that Meena could be a “vote cutter” for the Congress.
“There are more than 45,000 Mali and around 25,000 Meena voters at the Anta seat. With Naresh Meena, who is a known figure in the region, Congress’s vote bank will be divided,” a BJP leader said on condition of anonymity. “Pramod Jain Bhaya is respected locally but the Jain population is small. Morpal Suman has a clean image and will get a good chunk of Saini community votes.”
The bypoll also carries the imprint of Vasundhara Raje, former chief minister and influential BJP leader. Her son Dushyant Singh represents the Jhalawar-Baran Lok Sabha seat, of which Anta is a part. Suman, a grassroots leader with Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh connections, is known to be close to the Raje family, which is believed to have played a part in his rise in the party.
Before the final announcement, state BJP president Madan Rathore and Chief Minister Bhajan Lal Sharma reportedly sought Raje’s support for their preferred candidate. But Suman’s selection is seen as a sign that Raje prevailed.
This will be the eighth by-election since the Bhajan Lal government came to power. Of the seven held earlier—Khinvsar, Deoli-Uniara, Jhunjhunu, Dausa, Chaurasi, Ramgarh, and Salumbar—the BJP won five, Congress one, and the Bharat Adivasi Party one. Congress, which initially held four of these seats, was reduced to just one.
While the Anta bypoll will not affect the BJP government’s majority, its outcome will carry political weight. A BJP win would reinforce Chief Minister Sharma’s leadership in Hadoti. A Congress victory, on the other hand, would revive the party’s hopes after a string of defeats and offer a morale boost.