As Bihar heads into its assembly elections on November 6 and 11, with results due on November 14, the state stands at a crossroads. Over 7.42 crore voters, including 21.53 lakh newly added through a contentious revision of electoral rolls that deleted 3.66 lakh names, will decide the fate of 243 seats.
This revision, based on a 2003 database, has ignited accusations of disenfranchising marginalised groups, though the Election Commission maintains it was a cleanup exercise. Amid this, the political arena buzzes with familiar rivalries and fresh disruptions. The incumbent National Democratic Alliance (NDA), led by Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (United) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), faces a resurgent Mahagathbandhan (grand alliance) under Rashtriya Janata Dal’s (RJD) Tejashwi Yadav.
Enter Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party (JSP), a wildcard poised to fragment votes. Yet, beneath the spectacle, the deeper question lingers: after two decades of Nitish’s stewardship and cycles of alliances, can Bihar break free from its entrenched patterns of caste arithmetic and incremental governance, or will the vote merely reshuffle the same deck?
NDA’s Fortress Vs Mahagathbandhan’s Challenge
The Bihar electoral map once again reflects a largely bipolar contest, though new fronts add complexity. The NDA, anchored by the BJP and JD(U), has sealed a near-parity seat-sharing formula, with each contesting around 100 seats, joined by allies like Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) and Hindustani Awam Morcha.
The arrangement underscores the BJP’s tactical accommodation of Nitish Kumar, whose JD(U) had secured 43 seats in 2020 with a 15.4% vote share, a sharp slide from its earlier dominance. The alliance banks on its traditional pillars, upper castes, Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs), who form about 36% of Bihar’s population, and women voters, who outperformed men in 2020 with 59.6% turnout compared to 54.7% among men.
Facing them, the Mahagathbandhan—comprising RJD (75 seats in 2020), Congress (19), and CPI(ML)-Liberation (12)—projects Tejashwi Yadav as its chief ministerial face. The bloc seeks to capitalise on RJD’s 22.14% vote share in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls while overcoming internal delays in seat-sharing. The contest remains fierce across constituencies like Harnaut, Raghopur, Munger, and Bankipur.
Meanwhile, the Mahagathbandhan’s inclusion of the Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP) and projection of Mukesh Sahani as the deputy chief ministerial face strategically broadens its social appeal. Sahani, known as the “Son of Mallah,” strengthens the alliance’s outreach among Nishads and other non-Yadav OBC groups that have often drifted toward the NDA.
His presence adds regional balance and a backwards-class representation counterweight to Nitish Kumar’s EBC base. By combining Tejashwi Yadav’s youth-driven agenda with Sahani’s community connect, the bloc aims to present a socially inclusive front that can translate into crucial swing votes across Bihar’s riverine constituencies.
With smaller parties expanding their base, Bihar’s election may hinge on fine margins, as discontent simmers beneath Nitish Kumar’s long incumbency.
Youth Anger And Equity Demands Redraw Bihar’s Political Map
In Bihar, the election terrain is shifting: younger voters and calls for economic justice are eclipsing the stale “jungle-raj” tropes. Over half of the state’s population is under 40, making joblessness and migration pivotal issues. With one of India’s lowest worker-population ratios and high migration outflow, traditional development claims are under strain. Meanwhile, Bihar’s per capita income for 2023–24 is about Rs 66,800—among the lowest in India, underscoring deep economic disparity.
The Rashtriya Janata Dal-led Mahagatbandhan has hit big with a “one job per family” plank and women’s cash transfers, signalling a push for “economic justice”. The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party/Janata Dal (United) combine leans on its “good governance” narrative and infrastructure delivery.
Enter JSP: Kishor’s padyatras have mainstreamed migration and corruption as core issues, slamming Nitish’s regime for “looted money” redistribution and vowing Bihar’s top-10 ascent in 10 years.
With a large section of young voters backing Tejashwi and a noticeable chunk turning to Kishor’s disruptive appeal, polls indicate that even a modest surge for JSP could tilt over a dozen seats — signalling a generational shift beyond old rhetoric.
New Alliances Redraw Bihar’s Power Equation
Bihar’s political alliances are in flux as the JD(U) returns to the National Democratic Alliance, reshaping the electoral landscape. Nitish Kumar, after exiting the opposition bloc, is back at the helm of the NDA in Bihar. His re-entry cements the BJP’s backing for his leadership despite questions over fatigue and his health. Meanwhile, the BJP has expanded its outreach through alliances with the Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) and the Hindustani Awam Morcha (Independent), enhancing its social base among Dalits and other groups.
On the opposition side, the Rashtriya Janata Dal-led Mahagathbandhan has forged partnerships with left parties along with VIP and is targeting non-Yadav Dalits, Vaishyas and Muslims, even as the Congress plays a subdued role.
At the same time, a third front led by the Jan Suraaj Party (JSP) under the guidance of Prashant Kishor refuses to align with either major camp. The JSP’s caste-neutral strategy and campaigns against migration and corruption pose a potential spoiler especially in closely fought battlegrounds. With loyalties shifting, the usual binary contest is being replaced by a three-way struggle that could redefine Bihar politics.
Incumbency Vs Inertia: The Big Gamble In Bihar
Bihar’s political scene is at a crossroads: anti-incumbency pulses strong, yet real change remains elusive. The ruling alliance appears poised to hold a significant number of seats based on its broad social base and governance pitch, while the opposition, though energised, still battles legacy issues and scepticism over its promises. At the same time, a new force refuses to play the alliance game, staking everything on disruption and a single-front campaign.
Voter fatigue with current leadership is real, as observers note the campaign’s dominant theme of change. However, turnout rates this election are expected to remain in a range that typically benefits incumbents rather than challengers. The dominant alliance leans on its past track record and organisational strength; the rival coalition tries to win on its youth and social justice appeal; the insurgent party bets on capturing the “non-aligned” voter segment and acting as kingmaker.
Ultimately, this election may test whether Bihar is ready to move beyond caste and patronage politics toward governance and opportunity—or whether it cycles back into familiar patterns under new labels.
(Sayantan Ghosh teaches journalism at St. Xavier’s College (Autonomous), Kolkata, and is the author of The Aam Aadmi Party: The Untold Story of a Political Uprising and Its Undoing. He is on X as @sayantan_gh.)