A look at the Bihar Assembly poll results reflects the failure of the Mahagathbandhan parties to expand beyond what is considered their traditional voter bases. While the RJD suffered losses by sizeable margins in seats where it fielded EBC and non-Yadav OBC candidates, the Congress’s bet on upper-caste candidates failed to yield any reward.
The RJD’s EBC candidates performed the worst, with the highest average margin of defeat at 27,506 votes. EBCs are traditional voters of JD(U) president and Bihar CM Nitish Kumar.
While the RJD contested 143 seats and won 25, the Congress contested 61 seats and won six.
In the RJD’s list of 143 candidates, 77, or almost 54%, were OBCs, including 50 Yadavs and 27 from other OBC groups. The party had 15 upper-caste candidates and 12 EBCs. The remaining were Scheduled Castes (20), Muslims (18), and Adivasi (one).
Among the Congress 61 candidates, 22, or nearly 36%, were from upper castes, including 8 Brahmin and Bhumihar candidates each, 5 Rajputs, and 1 Kayastha.
RJD’s poor show
Of the 50 Yadav candidates fielded by the RJD, 11 (21.5%) were victorious, which was higher than its overall strike rate of 17.4%. The average margin of defeat for 40 Yadav candidates was 19,265 votes.
Among the non-Yadav OBC candidates, only three of the 27 managed to win their seats. The average margin of defeat for the 24 non-Yadav OBC candidates was 19,125 votes.
The RJD had fielded 12 EBC candidates, of whom only two were victorious: Anita Devi Mahato from Warsaliganj by 7,543 votes and Ranvijay Sahu from Morwa by 8,671 votes. The 10 who lost had an average margin of defeat of 27,506 votes. RJD leaders attributed this to the failure of the Mahagathbandhan to woo EBC voters despite its alliance with Mukesh Sahani’s VIP.
Among the RJD’s 20 SC candidates, four (20%) managed to win seats: Subedar Das (Makhdumpur), Kumar Sarvajeet Paswan (Bodh Gaya), Surendra Ram (Garkha) and Abhinav Mangal (Raniganj). The average margin of defeat for the RJD’s 16 SC candidates was 18,909 votes.
Of the 15 upper caste candidates of the RJD in the fray, just two (13.3%) — Bogi Singh from Matihani and Rahul Sharma from Jehanabad — won the elections. The average margin of defeat for the 13 upper caste RJD candidates was 23,599 votes.
The RJD’s Muslim candidates also fared poorly, winning just three (16.66%) of the 18 seats they contested. Faisal Rahman won from the Dhaka constituency, Asif Ahmad from Bisfi and Osama Shahab from Raghunathpur. The average margin of defeat for the remaining 15 was 22,432 votes.
Congress conundrum
None of the Congress’s 22 upper-caste candidates — the most from any community that the party fielded— managed to win a seat, prompting party leaders in Bihar to question the need to field so many of them. “We know that the upper castes are not going to vote for any other party, except the BJP. Why we gave them (upper-caste candidates) so many tickets is something beyond understanding,” said a Bihar Congress leader.
Some Congress leaders said the party did not have enough leaders from OBC, EBC and Scheduled Castes and hence relied on upper caste candidates.
For the eight Brahmin candidates of the Congress, the average margin of defeat was the biggest at 35,825 votes. For its eight Bhumihar candidates, the average margin of loss was 24,157 votes, and for the five Rajput candidates, it was 18,437 votes.
Of the 12 OBC candidates, one of the three from the Baniya community — Abhishek Ranjan from Chanpatia — won by a narrow margin of 602 votes. The other two Baniya leaders lost the election by an average margin of 25,267 votes.
Surendra Prasad from the OBC Kushwaha community won from Valmiki Nagar by 1,675 votes.
The Congress fielded five Yadavs (OBC), all of whom lost their seats. Their average margin of defeat was 28,502 votes.
Of its five EBC candidates, only one — Manoj Bishwas from Forbesganj — won by 221 votes. The average margin of defeat for the four who lost was 36,652 votes.
The 11 Dalit candidates of the Congress also fared badly, not winning a single seat. The average margin of their defeat was 37,554 votes.
The lone ST candidate, Manohar Prasad Singh, in the Congress list won from Manihari by the biggest margin for the party: 15,168 votes.
Two of the 10 Muslim candidates fielded by the party emerged victorious – Abidur Rahman from Araria and Md Qamrul Hoda from Kishanganj. The average margin of defeat for the eight Muslim candidates was 25,167 votes.