Though often referred to as the “sorrow of Bihar”, the Kosi river has proven to be a game-changer for the JD(U)-BJP combine in the 12 Assembly constituencies across eight districts that it flows through.
The dominant Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs) in the 12 seats of Nirmali, Pipra, Supaul (Supaul district), Phulparas (Madhubani), Mahishi and Simri Bakhtiarpur (Saharsa), Beldaur (Khagaria), Alamnagar (Madhepura), Bihpur, Gopalpur (Bhagalpur), Rupauli (Purnea) and Barari (Katihar) have made the belt favourable for the JD(U) in previous elections.
Back in 2020, the 26 seats in the Magadh region went to the polls in the first phase voted overwhelmingly for the Opposition, with the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) losing all seats except two. The JD(U) contested 11 of these seats while the BJP fielded candidates in 10. While the Nitish Kumar-led outfit drew a blank, the BJP won three of the seats it contested. For the ruling alliance, the situation appeared to get tough but then it outperformed the Opposition in North Bihar’s Kosi and Mithilanchal regions. In the 86 seats of Mithilanchal, the NDA won 55 while the Mahagathbandhan won 27 seats. Four other seats were won by other parties like the AIMIM and the then undivided Lok Janshakti Party (LJP).
In Kosi, the alliance won 11 constituencies, with 10 of those going to Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s party. The Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) managed to win only Simri Bakhtiarpur and was the runner-up in seven seats while the Congress finished second in three.
“At one point in 2020, it appeared that the Mahagathbandhan (comprising RJD, Congress and Left parties) would form the government. But North Bihar rescued the alliance, which won the maximum number of seats in the Kosi and Mithilanchal regions,” a JD(U) leader said.
Of the constituencies in Kosi, the JD(U) has won Nirmali, Supaul, Phulparas, Beldaur, Alamnagar and Rupauli — exactly half of the Assembly constituencies in the region — in the past three Assembly elections.
The 12 Assembly seats through which the Kosi flows have mostly voted in favour of Nitish Kumar and his allies.
In 2015, when the JD(U) fought the polls in alliance with the RJD, the coalition swept the belt, with the CM’s party winning eight and the latter winning four. The BJP was the runner-up in eight seats.
In 2010, the JD(U)-BJP combine collectively won 11, with eight seats for JD(U) and three for the BJP and one for the RJD (Mahishi).
North Bihar is gripped by floods every year, with lakhs of people suffering crop failure and livestock deaths, and forced to depend on air-dropped food. While they pick up the pieces and rebuild their lives, the story repeats itself. Local JD(U) leaders have been able to successfully push the narrative here that inundation is not in the control of the state government, as the destruction the Kosi causes is due to the water released by Nepal, which is located at a higher altitude.
“It is a matter of India-Nepal ties and has to be seen in that context. People of the region know that the Nitish government cannot do anything in this aspect,” a JD(U) leader said.
Claiming that Nitish is “sensitive and concerned” about those affected by the floods, JD(U) spokesperson Anjum Ara said, “Nitishji has announced that those affected by natural calamity have the first right on the state’s budget. While his government makes advance preparations, Nitishji himself conducts aerial surveys (of affected areas). He also visits camps each year and interacts with people, who understand that Nitishji helps them while (former Bihar CM) Lalu Prasad and his government asked them to survive on fish during the floods.”
Admitting that the social composition of the Kosi belt has favoured the JD(U) and people of the region “stay with the ruling party” to ensure benefits of state government schemes and rehabilitation reach them, former RJD MLA Yaduvansh Kumar claimed that the coming polls would be different.
“Nitish’s popularity among the OBCs is on the decline and may impact the results of the polls. Thus far, the JD(U) has been giving money to the poor voters. So, they vote for Nitish despite criticising Nitish,” he said.
Why EBCs back Nitish
Mahadalit and EBC are sub-categories among the Dalits and the Backward Classes that Nitish Kumar has carefully cultivated and empowered as he built a broader social coalition to take on Lalu Prasad and the RJD, and strengthened his grip on power in the past two decades.
While the creation of EBCs dates back to more than five decades to Karpoori Thakur, the first CM from the community, and the Mungeri Lal Commission, Nitish added more castes to the EBC category than listed by the Mungeri Lal Commission, increasing the number from 94 to around 112 at the moment. In 2006, his Cabinet approved 20% reservation for EBCs in district boards, panchayat samitis, and gram panchayats, providing them with a share of power at the grassroots level. Apart from this, the CM has also announced welfare schemes targeted at these groups.
Among these, only four castes — Teli, Mallah, Kanu, and Dhanuk — have a population of more than 2%. Among Muslims, Julaha is the only one with a significant presence, constituting 3.5% of the population. Seven other castes—Nonia, Chandravanshi, Nai, Barhai, Dhuniya (Muslim), Kumhar, and Kunjra (Muslim) — each have a population of less than 2%. None of the remaining 100 EBC castes has even a 1% share in the total population.