A fresh cyclone may be brewing close to the southern Bay of Bengal with some indications of a fresh synoptic system developing in the sea around November 24, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said Wednesday.
IMD said that a low-pressure system was likely to develop in the southeast Bay of Bengal around November 22.
“Thereafter, this system is likely to move west-northwestwards and intensify into a depression around November 24 and lie over the south Bay of Bengal. This system will continue to move west-northwest direction and further intensify during the subsequent 48 hours,” it said.
In view of this new system approaching India’s eastern regions of the South Peninsula, the IMD forecast rainfall activity would continue till early next week. Light to moderate rainfall is forecast over Tamil Nadu, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Yanam, and Rayalaseema till November 25. Rainfall over Kerala is expected to reduce after November 21.
On Wednesday, a cyclonic circulation prevailed in the southwest Bay of Bengal. The existing low-pressure area over the Comorin region and adjoining Lakshadweep is primarily driving moisture landward, giving momentum to the ongoing wet spell in southern peninsular India, especially Kerala and Tamil Nadu, since the start of this week.
“It is likely to move slowly west-northwestwards during the next 24 hours,” the Met Office said, indicating an end to the significant rainfall spell over the southern states soon.
Northeast monsoon performance
Extremely heavy rainfall of over 204 mm in 24 hours was recorded at many places in Tamil Nadu and Kerala, where the ongoing Northeast monsoon is in an active phase. Some of the wettest places were in Tirunelveli, Tenkasi, Thoothukudi, Kottayam, Alappuzha, and Ernakulam districts.
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In the first month of the Northeast monsoon, which began on October 15, rainfall over southern peninsular India has been close to normal (7.3 per cent above normal).
However, rainfall from November 1 and 19 has been abysmally low, with southern peninsular India receiving just 22.7 mm, against the normal of 67.1 mm, resulting in a rainfall deficit of 66 per cent, IMD’s data shows.