Seemanchal, with several districts that are Muslim-dominated, is expected to go with the Mahagathbandhan, while Shahabad had in 2020 upset the NDA’s calculations by unexpectedly turning against it.
Tirhut
Comprising Muzaffarpur, Sheohar, Sitamarhi, Vaishali, East Champaran and West Champaran districts, this region is the largest, comprising 49 Assembly seats. Of these, the two Champaran districts have been traditional NDA strongholds, while Sitamarhi and Muzaffarpur see keen contests.
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Having lived through a period when dacoits were rampant in the area due to its proximity to the Nepal border, the Champaran belt has swung the NDA way due to police gaining an upper hand under the Nitish Kumar government.
The Tirhut region has a mixed population of upper castes and OBCs, besides concentrated populations of EBCs such as Dhanuks and Mallahs.
Mithilanchal & Kosi
This region comprises Darbhanga, Madhubani, Samastipur, Supaul, Saharsa and Madhepura districts, with 40 Assembly seats. It has a good population of Muslims and Yadavs (particularly Yadavs in Madhepura), who are loyal supporters of the RJD. This time, the Mahagathbandhan has with it Mukesh Sahani’s Vikassheel Insaan Party, which may help it woo the Nishads who are settled along the riverine belt in the region.
Darbhanga and Madhubani also have a good percentage of upper caste Brahmins and Muslims, and hence there may be polarisation along religious lines in some seats, which could benefit the BJP.
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Saran
Comprising the districts of Saran, Gopalganj and Siwan, Saran has 24 Assembly seats. It has always been a close battleground for the NDA and Mahagathbandhan parties due to its social combination, with the NDA enjoying a slight advantage.
Here the two closely watched contests include Siwan and Chhapra. In Siwan, Bihar minister Mangal Pandey is facing the RJD’s Awadh Bihari Choudhary, while in Chhapra in Saran district, the RJD’s folk singer Khesari Lal Yadav is in contest against the BJP’s lesser known candidate Chhoti Kumari.
Seemanchal
Comprising Purnia, Katihar, Araria and Kishanganj districts, this region has 20 Assembly seats, and in 2020, gave 5 of those to the AIMIM. The Asaduddin Owaisi-led party is in the race again, and this could be a spoiler for the Mahagathbandhan if the large Muslim vote bank here shifts even a little.
The Jan Suraaj may pull off a surprise too, with its candidate Sarfaraz Alam in with a chance in Jokihat, which is seeing a four-way contest, including his brother and sitting MLA Shahnawaz Alam, who is an RJD nominee.
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Shahabad
The Bhojpur, Rohtas, Kaimur and Buxar districts falling in this region together include 22 seats. In 2020, Shahabad had been a big reason for the Mahagathbandhan’s strong performance, with the alliance picking up 20 seats here.
However, that was also because of Chirag Paswan and Upendra Kushwaha’s parties contesting separately, and eating into the NDA vote. This time, both the LJP (RV) and Rashtriya Lok Morcha are part of the NDA.
The BSP could also be a factor in this region in over half-a-dozen seats.