While the NDA hopes to duck anti-incumbency to return to power in Bihar, it has tended to repeat candidates from the 2020 polls this time, including those who lost.
The ruling NDA comprises the BJP, JD(U), Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas), Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular) and Rashtriya Lok Morcha (RLM) this time. In 2020, the undivided LJP and RLM were not a part of the NDA, while the Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP), which is now in the Mahagathbandhan, was an NDA partner.
In total, the NDA has fielded 114 new candidates and repeated 129 (including 37 who lost last time).
The BJP has 35 new faces as compared to 2020, which is nearly half of the number it has repeated (66). Of the 66 candidates repeated by the BJP, 54 won last time. In other words, the party has dropped 20 of its winning candidates, having bagged 74 seats in 2020, while repeating 12 candidates who had lost.
The second-biggest NDA partner, the Nitish Kumar-led JD(U), has fielded as many new candidates as it has repeated – 51 new to 50 repeats. Those repeated include 33 of its 43 winners from 2020, and 17 who lost last time.
The BJP and JD(U) are each contesting 101 seats this year.
[TABLE: NDA candidate selection by party]The LJP(RV) and RLM, which are a part of the NDA this time, unlike 2020, have fielded 21 and 4 new candidates, respectively.
The Chirag Paswan-led LJP(RV) is contesting 29 seats this time, compared to 143 last time, when it contested as the undivided LJP. It won only 1 seat in 2020, but is believed to have damaged the chances of several JD(U) candidates. Later, its sole MLA crossed over to the JD(U).
Of the 29 seats the LJP(RV) is fighting now, it contested 18 last time. However, of its 18 candidates in 2020, it has opted to repeat 8, or nearly half.
The Upendra Kushwaha-led RLM, which contested 104 seats in 2020 as part of a ‘Grand Democratic Secular Front’ but failed to win any seats, is contesting only 6 seats as part of the NDA now. These include 4 it contested in 2020. In these 4 seats, it has fielded new faces in 2, and repeated candidates from 2020 in 2.
The Jitan Ram Manjhi-led HAM(S) is contesting 6 seats this time, 1 less than it did in 2020. While the party has repeated 3 winners from 2020 (and re-fielded Manjhi’s wife Deepa, who won an Assembly bypoll last year to replace Manjhi after he became an MP), it has fielded 2 new candidates.
Behind the candidate selection
Overall, NDA allies have fielded new faces in 114 seats, of which they had won just 30 in 2020. New candidates have been named in these 30 despite the NDA winning them with an average margin of 15,150 votes and securing a vote share above 30% in all of them.
The NDA appears to have in mind the 2020 result, with the Mahagathbandhan just falling short of a 122-seat majority.
[MAP: Where NDA has fielded new candidates]Of the 84 seats not won by the NDA where it has fielded a new candidate (including 24 allotted to its additional allies this time), the Opposition Mahagathbandhan had won 78 – led by the RJD at 53 seats, followed by the Left parties at 15 and Congress at 10 – and parties like the AIMIM, undivided LJP, BSP and an Independent made up the rest.
The NDA will be hoping its candidate selection will help it overcome an average losing margin of 18,070 votes from the 2020 polls in these 84 seats.
Among the 129 seats where the NDA has opted for tried-and-tested candidates, 92 had been won by it comprehensively, with over 30% of the vote share.
The seat-sharing give-and-take
With the NDA expanding to include the LJP(RV) and RLM this time, 49 seats have changed hands within the alliance. Of these 49, the NDA had won just 10 – the BJP 4, the JD(U) 2, and its then ally VIP, 4. The Mahagathbandhan had won 35 of the remaining seats, with the AIMIM winning 3 and the BSP 1.
In particular, the VIP’s exit has vacated 11 seats for redistribution among NDA allies. The BJP is contesting 8 of these new seats – 4 of which had been contested by the JD(U) last time and another 4 by the VIP. The JD(U) is contesting 5 seats where the BJP had fielded a candidate last time.
It is to the LJP(RV) that a number of allies have sacrificed their seats, including 11 by the JD(U), 10 by the BJP, and 2 by the HAM(S). Besides, the LJP(RV) is contesting 6 seats where the VIP fielded candidates in 2020.
The RLM’s 6 seats include 3 contested by the JD(U) in 2020, 2 by the BJP and 1 by the VIP. One of the 6 seats to be contested by the HAM(S) had a JD(U) candidate in 2020.