New DelhiNovember 11, 2025 01:35 PM IST
First published on: Nov 11, 2025 at 01:27 PM IST
As voting in the second phase of the Bihar Assembly elections concludes on Tuesday evening, all eyes will be on the exit polls, which will follow.
A look back at 2020 and 2015 shows that while the exit polls in 2020 incorrectly predicted a narrow Mahagathbandhan victory, in 2015, pollsters vastly underestimated the success of the then JD(U)-RJD combine.
2020 elections
An average of 11 exit polls predicted a narrow win for the RJD-led Mahagathbandhan – at 125 seats, just clear of the 122-seat majority mark in the 243-seat Assembly – compared to 108 seats for the JD(U)-led NDA. Ultimately, it was the NDA that narrowly crossed the halfway mark in the House, winning 125 seats compared to the Mahagathbandhan’s 110 seats.
That year, the undivided LJP contested independently, while the Mukesh Sahani-led VIP, now with the Opposition, was with the NDA.
An average of 11 exit polls underestimated the NDA by 17 seats, and overestimated the Mahagathbandhan by 15 seats.
2020 exit polls
Patriotic Voter, P-Marq and ABP News-CVoter came the closest in their predictions, with all three projecting an NDA majority. News 18-Today’ Chanakya was the furthest off the mark with its prediction of 55 seats for the NDA and 180 seats for the Mahagathbandhan. Three agencies – Republic-Jan Ki Baat, India Today/Aaj Tak-Axis My India, and News 18-Today’s Chanakya – predicted an outright majority for the Mahagathbandhan.
2015 elections
In 2015, archrivals RJD and JD(U) came together as the Mahagathbandhan to contest the elections along with the Congress. The NDA in that election was led by the BJP and comprised the undivided LJP, the Rashtriya Lok Samta Party (now the Rashtriya Lok Morcha, led by Upendra Kushwaha), and Jitan Ram Manji’s Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular).
An average of six exit polls at the time predicted a narrow win for the Mahagathbandhan, saying it would cross the majority mark of 122 by 1 seat, while giving the NDA 114 seats.
2015 exit polls
But the RJD-JD(U)-Congress combine was a rousing success, collectively winning 178 seats and comfortably securing an outright majority. The NDA ended with just 58 seats.
While three polling agencies correctly predicted a Mahagathbandhan win, two backed the NDA to win, and one projected a hung Assembly. On average, these six polls had underestimated the Mahagathbandhan’s performance by 55 seats, and overestimated the NDA’s performance by 56 seats.
The CNN IBN-Axis poll was the closest to predicting the Mahagathbandhan’s overwhelming win with its tally of 176 seats. It also put the NDA at 64 seats.
However, despite the resounding win engineered by rivals-turned-allies RJD and JD(U), the alliance broke in 2017, when Nitish Kumar returned to the NDA fold to form a new government with the BJP.