In exactly a month from now, Bihar will vote for the first of its two-phase Assembly elections – the shortest in 20 years for the state.
Whatever the results, it will be the end of an era for Bihar as the elections are widely expected to be the last for Nitish Kumar, the JD(U) supremo who has been the state’s Chief Minister for over 19 years now. Nitish’s RJD counterpart Lalu Prasad has already handed over the reins of his party to son Tejashwi Prasad Yadav, who will be hoping to improve on the party’s surprise 2020 performance and win the CM chair for himself.
While the Mahagathbandhan’s Congress and the NDA’s Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) also fancy their chances, the dark horse could be newbie Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party (JSP).
A look at five things that could determine the Bihar elections – and the poll cycle that follows next year:
Nitish Kumar’s health
With the 74-year-old CM not in the best of health, one of the main points of attack of the RJD-led Mahagathbandhan is that Nitish is no longer in control of the administration, and that a seven-eight-member cabal of politicians and bureaucrats is running the state. Tejashwi, who is also the Leader of the Opposition, keeps sharing videos of CM at functions to illustrate this, the latest being from a Patna function Monday.
Mukesh Sahani, the chief of the Vikassheel Insaan Party, a Mahagathbandhan ally, told The Indian Express on Monday: “Nitish Kumar should be rested now. He has played his innings.”
The JD(U) has consistently denied the Opposition’s claims. Ally BJP has also asserted that elections are being fought under the leadership of Nitish, while remaining quiet over what would happen after the polls. The lingering goodwill for Nitish in the state, which he is widely credited with having brought quite a distance under his 19 years, is the reason for the BJP’s caution.
Asked about Nitish’s health, JD(U) chief spokesperson Neeraj Kumar said Monday: “He is taking all the decisions. His health is a matter of only Opposition discourse.”
Shower of sops
The NDA has tried to fight anti-incumbency with a slew of promises for the electorate. So far, 1.21 crore women in the state have received Rs 10,000 each for starting a business, with more funds to be distributed under the CM Mahila Rojgar Scheme as the model code of conduct does not apply to existing and running schemes.
The state is giving 125 MW free electricity to 1.89 crore families, while social security pension has been raised from Rs 400 to Rs 1,100 per month, honorarium of Jeevika, Aanganwadi and ASHA workers hiked, and Rs 1,000 monthly allowance announced for two years for the unemployed between the ages of 18 and 25.
Vote chori or ghuspaithiya?
The Opposition has tied the EC’s Special Intensive Revision drive of poll rolls, announced in the last lap of the elections, to its allegations of “vote chori” against the Modi government. The Voter Adhikar Yatra (August 17-September 1) led by Congress leader Rahul Gandhi and Tejashwi to drive home the charges drew huge crowds.
While it remains to be seen if that support would translate into votes for the Mahagathbandhan, the NDA has countered this by accusing its rival alliance of encouraging “ghuspaithiyas (illegal immigrants)”.
The EC’s own numbers, incidentally, have punctured both narratives. The number of deletions has not been as widespread or as biased against the minorities as the Mahagathbandhan claimed would happen, nor has the EC shared how many “infiltrators” it has weeded out. In fact, the reasons given for almost all deletions are death, duplication or someone having moved to another place.
Modi as the NDA face
Nitish is the declared face of the NDA campaign, but there is little doubt that, given the CM’s increasingly frail health, the alliance would be banking on Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s popularity to power it. With Gandhi taking charge of the Congress campaign, it would pit the two national leaders against each other in another state contest.
The BJP’s local faces, Deputy CM Samrat Choudhary and state chief Dilip Jaiswal, do not have the pan-Bihar appeal that the NDA needs, nor do their JD(U) counterparts Sanjay Kumar Jha and Rajiv Ranjan Singh.
The PK factor
In his first Assembly election, the poll strategist-turned-politician Prashant Kishor has already put his Jan Suraaj Party (JSP) on the map. In the past few days, his allegations against top BJP leaders have also managed to put the latter on the defensive.
To many tired of Bihar’s caste-in-stone politics, Kishor’s message that a government led by his party would address migration and unemployment, and provide good governance, including on education, is a breath of fresh air. One reason for the NDA’s shower of schemes is believed to be as an attempt to counter Kishor’s claims that the ruling parties of Bihar have not addressed its most basic needs.
The Jan Suraaj Party chief is also claiming that a “Socialist fatigue” has set in in the state, with leaders who originated from that ideological bent ruling the state since Lalu Prasad first took over reins in 1990.