After all political parties urged the Election Commission to not stretch out voting in Bihar, it is set to wrap up polling for the coming Assembly elections in two phases, down from three in 2020, five in 2015 and six in 2010. An analysis shows that in 2020, the Mahagathbandhan did better in the 121 seats that will vote on November 6, and the NDA in the 122 constituencies that go for polling on November 11.
While the NDA in the 2020 Assembly polls bagged 59 seats in voting in the first phase this time, trailing the Mahagathbandhan at 61, in the second-phase seats, the NDA had 66 and was well ahead of the Opposition alliance at 49.
However, the strike rate of the four main parties in the two Bihar fronts across the two phases remained almost the same.
The results for the 243-member Assembly will be announced on November 14.
In 2020, the BJP had contested 49 of the 121 seats that will vote on November 6, and won 32 – a strike rate of 65 per cent. Its ally, the Nitish Kumar-led JD(U), contested 65 of these seats and won 23, at a low strike rate of 35 per cent.
Mahagathbandhan leader RJD contested 71 of these 121 seats, and won 42, a strike rate of 59 per cent, while ally Congress contested 31 and won only eight, at a strike rate of 25.8 per cent.
In comparison, of the 122 seats voting on November 11, the BJP contested 61 and won 43, with again an impressive strike rate of 70 per cent. The JD(U) contested 50 seats and won 19 with a strike rate of 38 per cent.
The RJD contested 73 seats, winning 33, with a strike rate of 45 per cent, while the Congress improved its strike rate slightly to 28 per cent by winning 11 of the 39 seats it contested.
In total, the RJD narrowly emerged as the single largest party with 75 seats, followed by the BJP at 74, the JD(U) at 43, and the Congress at 19.
The JD(U), which fell from 71 seats in 2015 to 43 in 2020, largely held the Chirag Paswan-led Lok Janshakti Party – now known as LJP (Ram Vilas) – responsible for its setback. The LJP, contesting independently in 2020, won just one seat but was seen to have cut into the vote shares of NDA parties in 31 seats and Mahagathbandhan allies in 20.
The LJP (RV) is now in the NDA fold, and is pushing for 40 seats.
JD(U) spokesperson Anjum Ara spoke about the LJP effect in 2020, saying its presence as a separate party caused “confusion” among voters. Ara also attributed the Muslim discontent over the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) and National Register of Citizens (NRC) as another reason for the JD(U)’s poor performance.
This time would be different, the JD(U) leader said. “The NDA is intact now. Muslims, too, are happy with the welfare schemes of the Nitish Kumar government.”
How seats were picked for phases
In 2020, Bihar was the first to hold Assembly elections under Covid restrictions, with polling held over three phases. Seats adjacent to each other were picked for polling in each phase, with election and security personnel moving to the next closest cluster for the next phase.
In 2015, when there were five phases, the seats were similarly broken into adjacent clusters, with officials effectively moving across the state in a clockwise manner.
In the coming polls, the 121 first-phase seats are concentrated in central Bihar and partly the areas bordering Uttar Pradesh, while the 122 second-phase seats largely fall along the state’s borders with Nepal, West Bengal and Jharkhand and surround all the first-phase seats.
Effectively, officials will begin the election in central Bihar before spreading out to its extremities in the second phase.
BJP spokesperson Guru Prakash said the party wasn’t worried about the two-phase elections as the party organisation, from state to district and mandal units, “remains active on the ground and connected with people 365 days”. He added that infrastructure has developed in Bihar over the years and the road network has improved enough for a shorter election.
JD(U) leaders pointed out that the party had even pitched for a single-phase election to the EC. Ara said their logic was that holding elections as close to Diwali (October 20) and Chhath (October 25-28) as possible would mean many of the voters ordinarily living outside for work would be in the state. In a single-phase election, a large number of them could have voted without having to extend their stay beyond the festivals, the JD(U) leader said.
Still, Ara said, the party didn’t expect any trouble in activating its resources between first- and second-phase seats. Probable candidates have been working on the ground for three to four years already, the JD(U) leader said.
RJD spokesperson Nawal Kishore, however, felt that campaigning in the second phase of elections would be geographically challenging. “If a leader has to address one meeting in Paschim Champaran and the next in Jamui or Nawada, he will have to diagonally cut across the entire area of the first-phase seats,” he said.
While this held true for all parties, Kishore added, a ruling alliance had the resources to ease the journey.
The RJD leader also said that unlike 2020, when the Mahagathbandhan had a clear edge in the seats that will vote in the first phase this time, its impact would be spread out. “The Mahagathbandhan’s Voter Adhikar Yatra (led by Rahul Gandhi and Tejashwi Yadav) has largely covered the areas of the second-phase seats and a mobilisation has happened. The outcome will be visible in the results,” Kishore said.
How phases panned out in 2020, 2015
In the 2020 Covid Assembly polls, the NDA had a clear edge, with the Mahagathbandhan leading in just one of the three phases. Both the alliances had almost the same composition as now, with the Mahagathbandhan including the RJD, Congress and Left, and the NDA comprising the BJP, JD(U), and Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular). Only the VIP was then in the NDA, and is in the Mahagathbandhan now.
In the 71 seats that voted in the first phase in 2020, the Mahagathbandhan had the most success, winning 47 seats compared to the NDA’s 22. But in the second phase’s 94 seats, the NDA edged out the Opposition 51 to 42. In the 78 third-phase seats, the NDA surged even more, winning 52 seats against the Mahagathbandhan’s 21.
In the 2015 Assembly polls, held over five phases, the Mahagathbandhan consisted of the RJD, JD(U) and Congress, while the NDA comprised the BJP, LJP, HAM(S) and the Rashtriya Lok Samta Party (now known as the Rashtriya Lok Morcha, and with the NDA).
The combined forces of arch-rivals RJD and JD(U) ensured a lead for the Mahagathbandhan in each of the five phases.
In the 49 seats in the first phase, the Mahagathbandhan won 44 seats and the NDA 5. In the second phase’s 32 seats, the Mahagathbandhan won 23 seats versus the NDA’s 9. In the third phase, the Mahagathbandhan got 36 seats and the NDA 12 out of a total 50. In the fourth phase, the split was 30 to 21 in the Mahagathbandhan’s favour, out of 55 seats. In the final phase of 57 seats, the Mahagathbandhan won 45 seats and the NDA 11.