After the NDA’s landslide victory in the Bihar Assembly elections, Prime Minister Narendra Modi declared that “the Ganga flows through Bihar and reaches West Bengal”, where, despite its growing vote shares over the years, the party has struggled when facing the Trinamool Congress (TMC).
As Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee leads the TMC’s anti-SIR campaign with rallies in the Muslim-majority Malda and Murshidabad districts on Wednesday and Thursday, election data shows that in the approximately 174 Assembly seats (of the total 294) with at least a 15% Muslim electorate — as per the 2011 Census, Muslims comprise 27% of the population — the BJP has made headway in terms of vote shares but has struggled to convert its growing presence into seats.
2014 Lok Sabha
A marginal player in Bengal for decades, the BJP became noticeable in Bengal politics starting in 2014 as Narendra Modi came to power at the Centre. Of the 174 seats, the BJP led in only 8 Assembly segments (each Lok Sabha seat comprises several such segments) and improved its vote share in these constituencies to 15.44%. The TMC led in 120 Assembly segments, followed by the Congress at 26, and the Left at 20.
2016 Assembly
As the TMC overcame anti-incumbency to return to power, it won 124 of the 174 seats, while the BJP led in just 1, and its vote share across the 174 seats dropped to 10.03%. The Congress won 29 such seats and the Left 20 such seats. Its highest vote share came in Baishnab Nagar at 38.2%, with the party exceeding the 20% vote share mark in just 9 seats.
2019 Lok Sabha
The 2019 polls not only saw the BJP return to power at the Centre with its biggest ever mandate, but the party also notched its best showing in Bengal, where it won 18 parliamentary seats against the TMC’s 22, and the Congress’s 2.
In the 174 segments, the BJP saw its vote share rise to 35.42%, enough to lead in 42 segments at the expense of the Left, whose collective vote share dropped to 7.22% and it led to zero. The TMC secured 46.08% of the vote share and led in 123 segments. The Congress, too, fell to 7.98% but still led in 9 segments.
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The BJP managed to secure more than 20% of the vote share in 153 segments, including 128 segments where it exceeded 30%, 67 segments where it exceeded 40%, and 13 segments where it got 50% of the vote share. The party’s highest vote share in these seats was in Bhatpara, at 59.33%, and Kulti, at 59.06%.
2021 Assembly
As the TMC returned to power for a third term, the BJP, despite hopes of unseating Mamata Banerjee, fell short and became the primary Opposition party for the first time, with 77 seats in the House.
However, in the 174 seats, the TMC managed to extend its lead at the cost of the BJP, the Congress, and the Left. The TMC won 147 such seats, with 26 going to the BJP, and 1 won by the INDIA bloc constituent Indian Secular Front (ISF).
Despite sliding in terms of seats won (or led in) from the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the BJP managed to maintain its vote share in these seats at 34.78%, behind the TMC at 50.7%.
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However, there was a considerable improvement from its 2016 performance, as BJP candidates lost deposits in just 11 of these seats, compared to 159 five years earlier.
The BJP had 20%-plus vote share in 157 seats, including 123 seats where it exceeded 30%, 61 where it crossed 40%, and 7 seats where it exceeded 50%. The party’s highest vote share was in Tufanganj at 54.69%.
2024 Lok Sabha
In last year’s polls, the BJP approximately maintained its 2019 position, while improving marginally from its 2021 Assembly poll showing. Overall, the BJP fell to 12 Lok Sabha seats, while the TMC led at 29 seats.
With a 34.72% vote share across the 174 segments with 15% Muslim presence, the BJP led in 34 segments. The TMC led in 128 segments (47.97% vote share), followed by the Congress at 11 segments (6.92%).
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The BJP also maintained its high vote shares at the Assembly segment level compared to its performance in 2019 and 2021. While its highest vote share again came in Bhatpara at 54.28%, it secured more than 20% of the vote share in 154 segments, including more than 30% in 121 segments, over 40% in 60 segments, and exceeding 50% in 8 segments.