New Delhi: Nitish Kumar’s political career really started with an ultimatum. In 1985, when he was contesting his third election after losing the previous two, he addressed a large public meeting in Harnaut. There, he declared, “This is the last time I am asking you to vote for me. If you do not elect me now, I will never contest an election again.”
Nitish later recalled that the crowd fell silent, and he noticed tears in the eyes of people sitting in front. “It had touched their emotional chord,” writes Arun Sinha, Nitish Kumar’s friend, in his book Battle for Bihar: Nitish Kumar and the Theatre of Power.
Nitish even told his wife Manju, “Let me try just one more time. If I fail, I shall retire from politics.”
But he did not fail, and since that victory in 1985, he has never looked back.
He also learned the tricks of staying relevant, winning one election after another by switching alliances whenever needed, and eventually became the central figure in Bihar politics, overtaking even Lalu Prasad Yadav, who had once seemed invincible.
After 15 uninterrupted years as chief minister, Nitish faced two major challenges in 2020: The human and administrative crisis of Covid-19, and the political challenge from coalition partner BJP, which used LJP leader Chirag Paswan to dent Nitish’s political capital.
Nitish once again appealed directly to the electorate, saying that 2020 would be his last election. Once again the people trusted him. But this time, the JD(U) was reduced to 43 seats. Nevertheless, perhaps recognising that Nitish was crucial to the alliance, the BJP accepted him as chief minister.
BJP’s 2025 strategy
For the 2025 Assembly elections, the BJP initially chose not to campaign jointly with Nitish to avoid antagonising its cadre which wanted a BJP chief minister. But after the first phase, the BJP realised its mistake. There was no anti-incumbency against Nitish; in fact, EBC voters and women were sympathetic towards him, viewing him as an ageing but dependable leader.
From Amit Shah to Samrat Choudhary, BJP leaders had to reiterate publicly that “there is no vacancy for the chief minister’s post in Bihar”, reaffirming that Nitish would continue as CM after the mandate.
Defied health concerns
The historic 2025 mandate once again established Nitish as the only constant in Bihar politics. His welfare-oriented governance, focus on women’s empowerment, the ‘Sushasan Babu’ image, and the NDA’s broad social coalition contributed to the victory.
But the BJP’s historic performance, with nearly a 90% strike rate, has now posed new questions: Will the BJP allow Nitish to complete a full term? Will he, given his health and occasional missteps, complete his tenure? Or, considering Bihar’s caste complexities, will the BJP avoid destabilising the current balance?
Yashwant Deshmukh, founder of C-Voter, notes that Nitish has been written off many times but has always bounced back. “There was no anti-incumbency against him. Women voters, empowered over the last 20 years, trusted him despite rumours about his health.”
Mockery, rumours & Nitish’s campaign
Before the campaign began, RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav mocked Nitish’s health, and social media trolls targeted the chief minister for garlanding a woman candidate during a Muzaffarpur rally. JDU working president Sanjay Jha tried to stop him, but Nitish scolded Jha and placed the garland around Rama Nishad’s neck. Even Rahul Gandhi mocked Nitish’s health, claiming he was a “puppet in Amit Shah’s hands.” Nitish did not respond.
Despite the health rumours, Nitish addressed 84 rallies—only one less than Tejashwi—at the age of 74. Home Minister Amit Shah, in an interview to NDTV, defended Nitish, pointing out that anyone holding “five or six rallies a day” was clearly fit.
JD(U)’s defence
JD(U) spokesperson Neeraj Kumar said, “Throughout the campaign, Nitish-ji held more than 80 rallies. He is healthy and fit to continue as chief minister.”
He cited an incident during ticket distribution, when Nitish personally intervened to give the party symbol to Ratnesh Sada after learning that his seat was being shifted without his approval. “This shows how mentally alert he is.”
BJP’s limitations
Many BJP leaders admit that after such a strong mandate, Nitish must be respected. Any attempt to sideline him would backfire with women and EBC voters. The NDA fought the election under Nitish’s leadership, and the Maharashtra formula cannot be applied in Bihar.
Ashwini Kumar of TISS argues that Bihar’s social demography is very different from Maharashtra. Nitish and the BJP complement each other like “Luv-Kush”, and the BJP cannot risk losing its backward-caste support base.
Shivanand Tiwari, a founder of the Samata Party, says Nitish is doing everything the BJP wants. “Why would the BJP risk losing EBC support? Nitish’s role is essential even for the central government’s stability.”
Writer Prem Kumar Mani says that Bihar’s social chemistry is unique, and BJP’s Hindutva narrative has never fully succeeded in the state. The BJP has limitations without Nitish, who commands both the EBC and women’s vote—a position similar to what Karpoori Thakur once enjoyed.
Succession within JD(U)
As the NDA began preparing to form the new government, the question of succession was inevitable. JD(U) leaders say Nitish will make a choice at the right time; for now, the moment has not come.
Many within the party warn that JD(U) risks a fate similar to Odisha’s BJD, which has no clear successor to Naveen Patnaik. Without Nitish, the JD(U) could merge with either the BJP or the RJD. But only Nitish knows the answer.
Nitish has never publicly indicated a successor. Even close aides like Vijay Choudhary, Sanjay Jha, and Lallan Singh admit they do not know his mind. Whenever he senses disloyalty, Nitish acts decisively. For instance, R.C.P. Singh was dropped after he started getting close to Amit Shah; Jitan Ram Manjhi was removed after rebelling; Lallan Singh was replaced as state president when he questioned inner-party democracy.
In 2023, Nitish reassumed the party presidency from Lallan after rumours of a secret meeting with Tejashwi.
JD(U) insiders admit there is no second line of leadership with stature anywhere near Nitish’s.
The Nishant question
Despite some pressure within the cadre to bring Nitish’s son Nishant Kumar into politics, Nitish has not agreed. JDU spokesperson Neeraj Kumar notes, “The cadre wants Nishant to enter politics—it will energise the youth. But Nitish-ji has not allowed it.”
During the campaign, Nitish repeatedly criticised Lalu Prasad Yadav for promoting his family, saying his socialist background prevented him from supporting dynastic politics. Senior leader K.C. Tyagi confirms that Nitish’s ideological roots make him reluctant to push Nishant forward.
With no clear succession plan in JD(U), and with the BJP unable to risk generational change, Nitish remains indispensable. Bihar voters have rejected both Prashant Kishor and Tejashwi Yadav in this election, reaffirming Nitish’s centrality at age 74.
Writer Prem Kumar Mani notes that Karpoori Thakur had groomed Nitish, Lalu, Ram Vilas Paswan, and many others. But Nitish and Lalu have not created a comparable second line. The BJP, after Sushil Modi’s demise, also lacks a backward-caste leader of Nitish’s stature. This is why Nitish will continue until he himself decides to step down.
(Edited by Viny Mishra)
Also read: Bihar to finally have the first BJP CM. It’s just a matter of time