Phir se Nitish as BJP-JD(U) storm Bihar; Tejashwi’s gamble falls flat

New Delhi: The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is headed for a decisive victory in Bihar, overwhelming the Opposition grand alliance and positioning Nitish Kumar as claimant for a record fifth term as chief minister. Politics in the state has revolved around his leadership for the past two decades.

Early results from the Election Commission of India highlight a clear trend. The NDA, supported by strong performances from the Janata Dal (United) and BJP, leads in most of Bihar’s 243 assembly constituencies.

The trend in results has crushed the hopes of the Mahagathbandhan, the alliance of the Rashtriya Janata Dal, Congress, the Left parties, and the Vikassheel Insaan Party, to win on the back of allegations of voter fraud. The contentious Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of voter rolls had drawn loud protests from the Opposition camp ahead of polling.

With the numbers pouring in, it has become evident that the lawlessness and misgovernance that marked the years of Lalu Prasad Yadav’s chief ministership continue to be the biggest thorn in the side of the RJD, the anchor of the Mahagathbandhan, and its chief ministerial candidate, Tejashwi Yadav. The RJD was leading in only 26 seats at 1.45 pm, according to the ECI.

Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party was billed as a potential third pole in Bihar politics. It, however, failed to take off despite becoming a talking point among voters in both urban and rural Bihar. The election turned sharply bipolar, leaving little room for a new challenger. The JSP, which appeared to capture the pulse of aspirational voters, drew a blank.

The state, meanwhile, continues to lag economically, pushing large numbers of young people to migrate out in search of a livelihood.

For the RJD, it is back to the drawing board. The results show the party’s struggle to expand beyond its traditional Muslim-Yadav vote base still continues. Under Tejashwi, the RJD has tried an image makeover. It has introduced a progressive vision for development. It has reached out to non-Yadav OBC and EBC voters.

Tejashwi sought to outdo the NDA with lofty promises, including government jobs for every family. However, the majority of voters have chosen to repose their faith in the seasoned Nitish Kumar.

His poll-eve handout of Rs 10,000 to over one crore women each may have tilted the scales in his favour. The promise of more benefits later may have also worked.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s enduring appeal also helped Nitish paper over the cracks in his developmental model, and the social coalition he has assiduously built over the years, helping the NDA retain its edge.

The Opposition INDIA bloc’s attempt to stitch together a rainbow coalition yielded no dividends. The courting of smaller castes, such as Mallahs, Sahanis, Nishads, and Taantis, probably appeared too overtly poll-driven.

The BJP-led NDA’s significant lead has further consolidated the party’s hold over the northern belt.

There are no signs of any resurrection by the Opposition, which had hoped to reverse its shrinking presence in the Indian heartland. It now governs only Himachal Pradesh, Jharkhand, and Punjab in the region, which sends significantly more MPs to the Lok Sabha than the southern states.

Already reeling from a string of assembly election defeats since the 2024 general elections, the Congress’s dismal performance in Bihar is set to deepen the party’s crisis. At 1.45 pm, the Congress had a lead on only four seats, according to the ECI.

The loss will sting even more, as the BJP is likely to use it to discredit Rahul Gandhi’s “vote chori” campaign, projecting the Bihar mandate as a barometer of public sentiments.

After all, Rahul had made his opposition of the SIR and “vote chori”—the alleged manipulation of voter lists by the ECI in collusion with the BJP—the fulcrum of the Opposition’s campaign. He even led a fortnight-long ‘Voter Adhikar Yatra’ in Bihar to mobilise public opinion against the BJP—much to the chagrin of several state leaders of the Congress and the RJD, who felt the issue failed to resonate with voters.

The Congress has lost seven of the nine elections held since the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, in which the party nearly doubled its tally of MPs, giving rise to the impression that its worst days were over.

The Congress, however, has since suffered defeats in state after state. It first lost Haryana and Maharashtra, where it was in a direct contest with the BJP. On similar lines, it has performed poorly in Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, Arunachal Pradesh, and Sikkim, where it has long been a marginal player.

The only places where the INDIA bloc has tasted some success are Jharkhand and Jammu and Kashmir, with the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha and National Conference posting victories, aided marginally by the Congress.

(Edited by Madhurita Goswami)

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