With the counting of votes in the Bihar Assembly elections set to take place on Friday, here are five things to watch out for in this keen contest between the incumbent NDA and the Opposition Mahagathbandhan.
Chief Minister and JD(U) president Nitish Kumar has long been the NDA’s face in Bihar. With the BJP and the JD(U) both allotted 101 seats as part of the NDA’s seat-sharing deal for the state’s 243 seats in the elections, the balance of power appeared to have shifted in the alliance, with the JD(U) no longer remaining the BJP’s senior ally. This indicated that even Nitish’s role may face scrutiny or challenge after the polls.
To retain his position as the NDA’s principal leader in Bihar, Nitish would be dependent on two things: the JD(U)’s own performance and whether the alliance could clinch a clear victory. If the NDA wins comfortably and Nitish retains a strong personal mandate with his party improving its tally as compared to the 2020 polls – when it had won just 43 seats against the BJP’s 74 – his leadership will be reinforced. But if the NDA’s victory is narrow and the BJP outperforms the JD(U), Nitish may see a question mark over his leadership.
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Jan Suraaj’s future
Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj has made its electoral debut, positioning itself as the third alternative in the Bihar elections. Its apparent strategy appears to be less about winning a large chunk of seats this time, and more about establishing its salience and winning voters’ confidence by garnering a significant percentage of votes.
Even if the Jan Suraaj does not win many seats, its vote share and constituency influence would be closely watched. For instance, its votes may prove decisive in some seats involving close contests.
The party’s performance would also determine whether it becomes a player in Bihar politics or would just remain a one-election experiment. If it manages to get a double-digit vote percentage, it could position itself as a legitimate alternative in Bihar’s future polls. If it wins some seats, it could even play the role of a kingmaker in the event of a hung Assembly. A poor vote share or inability to influence outcomes in seats may make its road ahead tougher.
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The Jan Suraaj has ushered in a new political language in Bihar, but the poll results will test its ability to withstand the deeply-entrenched caste and regional dynamics in the state. If the party puts up a dismal show, it would struggle to justify its existence or plans.
Congress’s standing
After losing its dominant influence it once held in Bihar, the Congress has been a part of the RJD-led Mahagathbandhan for several years. The grand old party has contested about 60 seats in this election, looking to demonstrate relevance in a landscape increasingly shaped by caste equations and regional parties.
The challenge for Congress is two-fold: first, improving its own tally relative to the 2020 polls (both in terms of seats won and vote share), and second, carving out a distinct identity rather than being seen as just an RJD ally. If the Congress wins a significant number of seats, it could look for a stronger bargaining power in the Mahagathbandhan. Otherwise, the party may be marginalised and struggle to assert influence in any post-poll arrangement. Given that Rahul Gandhi led his Voter Adhikar Yatra across Bihar ahead of the polls, his campaign’s success would also be determined by the poll results.
Roles of VIP, IIP
The Mukesh Sahani-led Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP) and the I P Gupta-led Indian Inclusive Party (IIP) are among the smaller allies of the Mahagathbandhan. Their roles would be seen not only in winning seats but also in terms of vote share, regional hold, and ability to mobilise the crucial Extremely Backward Caste (EBC) votes in favour of the alliance.
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Their performance would have a significant bearing on the Mahagathbandhan’s prospects in this election. It would show whether they helped the Opposition grouping expand its social base or not. Their seats and vote share would also indicate whether they pulled their weight, which would define their future relations with the alliance.
Chirag’s performance
Chirag Paswan’s LJP (Ram Vilas) was allotted 29 seats under the NDA seat-sharing pact despite the fact that it had won only one seat in 2020. Chirag has argued that this share stemmed from his party’s 100 % strike rate in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections and its influence among the Dalit and marginalised groups.
His justification would be tested by the poll outcome. If the LJP(RV) repeats its Lok Sabha poll feat and brings sizeable seats for the ruling coalition, or improves its vote share, then Chirag’s stock will rise further in the NDA. It may also impact the coalition’s power dynamics, given the strained relations between the LJP (RV) and the JD(U).
On the other hand, if the LJP(RV) stumbles, it may raise questions about Chirag’s claims of his party’s electoral prowess. It would also give the JD(U) a handle to rein in his party within the coalition.