Bihar Election Exit Poll 2025 Live: With the two-phase voting in the 243-seat Bihar Assembly election now complete, all eyes are on the forthcoming exit polls, which will provide early indicators of how major alliances fare, even though the final count on 14 November will be decisive.
The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the Mahagathbandhan are locked in a high-stakes contest. The NDA, led by the Bharatiya Janata Party and its state partner Janata Dal (United), has set an ambitious target of 160+ seats in the 243-member house.
A higher voter turnout in Phase 1 may signal a heightened mood and increased engagement among women, youth and first-time voters.
Observers note that traditional fault-lines such as caste, youth unemployment and women’s participation remain central to the results.
It will be interesting to see if the NDA can achieve its 160+ seat target, or will the Mahagathbandhan make significant gains despite the challenge?
Can emerging players and newer politics (such as independent regional formations) upset the established two-bloc dynamic?
What Determines Accuracy of Exit Polls?
The reliability of an exit poll depends on several crucial factors that influence how closely it reflects the actual election outcome.
Sample Size: The bigger the sample, the more dependable the results. A large and diverse pool of respondents helps minimize errors and ensures that different regions, communities, and voter groups are fairly represented.
Question Design: The way questions are worded plays a key role in maintaining neutrality. Questions must be unbiased and straightforward to avoid influencing respondents’ answers. Even subtle wording differences can skew results in favor of one party or alliance.
Geographical Coverage: Broader coverage across constituencies and demographic segments improves accuracy. Polls that only focus on select regions may fail to capture the full picture of voter sentiment.
Political analysts point out that neutral and carefully timed surveys, with questions that don’t hint at a preferred outcome, are the most likely to produce credible results.