On paper, it is just one seat. However, a lot rides on the Sasaram Assembly constituency for Rashtriya Lok Morcha (RLM) chief Upendra Kushwaha, whose hold on the Kushwaha vote was rattled by his 2024 Lok Sabha loss. Wresting back Sasaram would go a long way towards redemption, not to mention that the candidate from the seat – among the total 6 the RLM is contesting – is Kushwaha’s wife Snehlata.
In 2020, when the RJD’s Rajesh Kumar Gupta won from Sasaram, it was the first time in 30 years that the constituency had gone to a non-Kushwaha. While the BJP’s Jawahar Prasad Kushwaha represented it between 1990 and 2010, the RJD’s Ashok Kumar Kushwaha won in 2015.
The win of Gupta, who belongs to the OBC Vaishya community, from Sasaram in 2020 was to a large extent due to the presence of Chirag Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party in the race (the party was not aligned with the BJP then). The LJP’s Rameshwar Prasad Chourasia got over 22,000 votes, and the NDA candidate bore the brunt.
Continuing its 2020 experiment, the RJD has this time denied a ticket to Gupta and fielded Satyendra Sah, belonging to the EBC Teli community, who number over 20,000 in the constituency.
However, Sah’s campaign has struggled, following his arrest in a Jharkhand bank loot case soon after he had filed his nomination. He is out on bail.
The RLM has a good chance, thus, of winning Sasaram. To be doubly sure, Upendra Kushwaha camped in the constituency for the length of the campaign, holding about a dozen rallies.
Despite his claim to the Kushwaha vote, the former Union minister of state has had only middling political success, interspersed with frequent switching of political loyalties. Snehlata’s win would help him keep his standing in the NDA.
While the EBCs number about 35,000 in Sasaram (including the Telis at around 20,000), which is the same as the Kushwahas, the upper castes are around 20,000. The NDA can count on votes across all three groups, while the RJD will hope to get a large section of the Teli vote, apart from the backing of the 15,000-odd Yadavs and 20,000 Muslims.
Besides these groups, the seat has around 20,000 Banias, 15,000 Ravidas and about 10,000 Paswans, who are also expected to lean towards the NDA.
One X factor is the presence of ex-RJD MLA Ashok Kumar Kushwaha in the race on the BSP ticket. He is expected to cut into a good number of votes, especially the RJD’s.
Om Prakash Agrawal, a local businessman, said that caste was just one part of it. “What will go in Snehlata’s favour is her husband Upendra Kushwaha staying connected with Sasaram ever since he represented the neighbouring Karakot Lok Sabha seat between 2014 and 2019. Besides, Upendra Kushwaha is perhaps the only pan-Bihar Kushwaha leader.”
O P Chourasia, another local resident, said that Snehlata will also benefit from the popular schemes of the Nitish Kumar-led NDA government in the state. “Nitish distributing Rs 10,000 each to prospective women entrepreneurs also has its resonance.”
Amit Yadav, a local doctor and supporter of the RJD, argued that the party will gain as caste combinations are not the only factor now. “The RJD has been trying to move beyond its traditional Muslim-Yadav vote base,” he said.
To give a boost to the RJD campaign, its leader and the Mahagathbandhan CM face, Tejashwi Yadav, held a public meeting in Sasaram. Apart from winning Sasaram, the RJD hopes for a repeat of 2020 when it had swept the Shahabad region, restricting the NDA to just two out of 22.
Even if not the primary factor, caste combination remained a major one, a resident not wishing to be identified regretted. He named two issues that, he said, should be the priority: “The Sadar Hospital here has no amenities and people have to go to Varanasi (120 km away) for treatment. And there is no alternative business after stone mining was declared illegal.”