Owaisi’s AIMIM Emerges as Key Factor in Seemanchal’s 24-Seat Battle

Seemanchal — the 24-seat cluster of Kishanganj, Katihar, Purnia and Araria has become the focal point of Bihar’s electoral drama, and Asaduddin Owaisi and his party AIMIM are once again reshaping the contest. Five years after AIMIM shocked political observers by winning five Seemanchal seats in 2020, Owaisi has returned with an intensified push to consolidate Muslim voters and expand his footprint. That emergence has put both the NDA and the Mahagathbandhan on the defensive: neither alliance can take Seemanchal’s vote bloc for granted. Demographics explain the strategic urgency. Kishanganj alone is roughly two-thirds Muslim, and Katihar, Araria and Purnia each have very high Muslim shares relative to Bihar’s statewide average. Historically those voters have favoured RJD-Congress-led coalitions, but AIMIM’s 2020 breakthrough showed how rapid shifts are possible when a third force mobilizes identity, development grievances and voter discontent. Owaisi’s narrative highlights longstanding development deficits in Seemanchal, poor higher education access, weak health indicators, lack of sports and industry infrastructure and recurrent flood damage arguments aimed at persuading voters that neither traditional alliance has delivered.The political consequence is fragmentation: a split Muslim vote can hand seats to the NDA, but a united anti-NDA front could secure a decisive bloc. Parties are therefore recalibrating strategies targeted outreach, promises of projects and emotive appeals while voters weigh identity, local grievances and development promises. As campaigning intensifies, Seemanchal’s outcome will likely determine larger power equations in Bihar and set the tone for coalition math across the state.