Not long back, the BJP was not keen on projecting JD(U) supremo Nitish Kumar as the NDA’s chief ministerial face. From its state unit to the central leadership, the message was calibrated: that Nitish would lead the coalition in the elections, but that the choice of the new CM would be decided later.
But the sharp reaction by the JD(U) – apart from the Opposition – to Union Home Minister Amit Shah’s remarks laying this out are just one reason BJP leaders are supporting Nitish wholeheartedly now. The other is the overwhelming support for the JD(U) leader on the ground, despite his 20 years in power and his allegedly fragile health.
Sources admit the BJP was taken by surprise by this. So much so that many, including in the BJP and the Opposition, believe that the JD(U) will not be as far behind as it was in 2020 – with 43 seats to the BJP’s 74. The two allies are contesting the same number of seats, 101, this time (unlike 115 for the JD-U and 110 for the BJP in 2020), with the BJP insisting on parity.
Nitish’s health, U-turns
Voters dismiss concerns about Nitish’s health, seeing this mostly as a media narrative, built on a few instances. Instead, right from the heart of Patna to Champaran, voters cutting across caste, class, genders and ages express trust in the capabilities of the 74-year-old, who has been CM since 2005, barring a brief period when he ceded the post to Jitan Ram Majhi (now the chief of NDA ally Hindustani Awam Morcha-Secular).
Women lead the way in this, as the bedrock of Nitish’s support base.
Abhilasha Devi, a mother of four, recently started selling fresh fruits from a table outside her husband’s roadside eatery in Motihari, Champaran. Her husband Sanjay Kumar Gupta proclaims “faith” in the BJP and Prime Minister Narendra Modi, but Abhilasha attributes everything to Nitish.
“I could buy these fruits because of the money Nitish put in my account (Rs 10,000 under the Mukhyamantri Mahila Rozgar Yojana, announced before the elections). He is the one who made it possible for me… Had he not been the CM, we would have been cowering inside houses after sunset,” Abhilasha says, in a reference to the alleged crime spree during Lalu Prasad-led RJD governments.
In village after village, women appreciate “what Nitish Kumar has done for us”, from the Mukhyamantri Balika Cycle Yojana introduced in 2006, providing free bicycles to school girls, to 50% reservation for women in panchayats and urban local bodies, and 35% quota for women in all government jobs.
Amit Kumar Bakshi, a faculty member at the Centre for Economic Policy and Public Finance of the Asian Development Research Institute (ADRI), says: “Nitish Kumar is the reason for the change in the lives of women in Bihar… For many girls, even getting to school and getting a priority in government jobs was a dream. For married women, his prohibition decision has been decisive, leading to a massive decrease in domestic violence,” says Bakshi.
Opposition parties have been pointing to the fitful implementation of prohibition, and the spurt in spurious liquor, to stir anger against the Nitish government. Even Gupta, the self-declared BJP voter, apprehends that some voters disenchanted over prohibition may vote for the RJD. But, Bakshi points out: “There could be different views, however, prohibition has overall done good for women.”
It’s not just the women, asserts Ram Babu Jha, a farmer from Muzaffarpur. “Even men, including BJP supporters, know there is no one like Nitish for Bihar. He is honest, faces no allegations of corruption. (Jan Suraaj founder) Prashant Kishor calls himself ‘Bihar ka ladka (Bihar’s boy)’. Where was he all these years? While he was busy making money, Nitish ji was taking on the goondas, constructing roads and lifting the people of Bihar.”
Raghvendra Kumar Jha in Patna dismisses reports about Nitish’s health or “behaviour”. “Since the campaign started, he has been attending rallies and conducting roadshows.”
Nitish’s frequent change of alliances is not a factor either, says Raghvendra. “He took U-turns only when he realised his ally was becoming corrupt. People have faith that Nitish will not go wrong. He is a guardian to the people of Bihar.”
Sameer Jha, who identifies himself as a YouTuber, also points to Nitish’s “work” in Bihar. “Now that he has corrected the law and order, and worked on basic infrastructure, he will soon put the state into industrial mode.”
On the RJD, Sameer says: “In the 1990s, when the entire country was embracing liberalisation, Bihar was busy doing social engineering. Lalu Prasad was encouraging neo-Naxalism – he wanted to raise a population that felt so exploited it would become his loyal support base.”
According to Sameer, this is why there is more support for even the Congress than the RJD in Bihar. But the Congress “has nothing much to offer”, he says.
Even senior BJP leaders admit they may have underestimated Nitish. “Throughout the seat-sharing discussions, he was alert, sharp and competent. He knew what he did not want, and the arithmetic of each constituency. No one could bluff with him,” says one of them.
BJP’s leadership gap
The support for Nitish also stems from the fact that the BJP has not been able to nurture a strong leadership in Bihar. A BJP MP from the state admits this lapse “despite the party’s strong desire to grow as an independent force” in the state.
While this may not have been enough of a hindrance in 2020, when the BJP was still riding the Modi wave of popularity, the absence of a face is hurting now.
All the three top state BJP leaders – Deputy CM Samrat Choudhary, state party chief Dilip Jaiswal and minister Mangal Pandey – are battling corruption allegations from Prashant Kishor. “They have taken a hit to their credibility,” admits a BJP leader.
Meanwhile, even from within the non-JD(U) ranks, the NDA has a new star campaigner: LJP (Ram Vilas) leader and Union minister Chirag Paswan. A key BJP leader admits: “We have five crowd pullers – PM Modi, Amit Shah, Yogi ji (Adityanath), Chirag Paswan and Nitish.”
Patna-based Sameer Jha says the BJP has failed to get basics right such as promoting young faces, or to factor in caste in Bihar. “Upper castes vote for the BJP, but it gave more tickets to backward classes. Kayasthas are loyal to the BJP, but of them, only Nitin Nabin (sitting minister and Bankipur MLA) is being promoted.”
Nabin, the Minister for Road Construction and a four-time MLA, asserts the BJP has deliberately taken a backseat to Nitish. “As long as the party does not field anyone, it appears that it does not have a face. But the BJP has a galaxy of leaders and our leadership can choose anyone and he or she becomes the face. We just did not want to topple anyone,” says Nabin, 45.
Ravindra Kumar, a law student, chuckles that the BJP has never seemed as desperate to want Nitish to win. “Vo log-tan man laga ke kaam kar rahe hein (They are giving the fight their all).”
Contrast with RJD
RJD leaders assert that unemployment and jobs have become a narrative in these elections only because of Tejashwi Yadav. Naval Kishore, an RJD spokesperson based in Patna, says: “The BJP and NDA were trying to make this a Hindu-Muslim fight… But the youth want change.”
Both Kishore and RJD Rajya Sabha MP Manoj K Jha argue that Tejashwi’s governance record, even if it was just for 17 months as a Deputy CM in two Nitish Kumar governments, is a “testimony” to his efficiency. “He gave 5 lakh jobs and the process was initiated for 3.5 lakh more. Four hundred more medicines were added to the list of free medicines in government hospitals,” Kishore lists.
Manoj Jha calls it “a make or break election for Bihar”, which will decide “whether Bihar walks towards the future or slips to Gujarat-oriented policies”. “This is an election not for a change of government, but to change how a government functions.”
However, despite the fact that a significant portion of the Bihar electorate has not witnessed the alleged “jungle raj” of Lalu, and the RJD accuses the BJP of raising it as a desperate attempt to win elections, the RJD has not been able to convince voters that it offers a “new era” under Tejashwi Yadav.
Besides, even as the NDA appears to have closed ranks behind Nitish, rumours of “friction” within the Mahagathbandhan are growing. Tejashwi and Congress leader Rahul Gandhi, who led a ‘joint Vote Adhikar Yatra’, hardly campaigned together in the first phase. Closer home, Tejashwi must contend with elder brother Tej Pratap Yadav, who has floated a separate party and is contesting 22 seats.
Kishan Kumar, an autodriver in Motihari, says: “This rift doesn’t go down well with voters. Given the RJD’s record, it’s difficult to convince everyone to vote for it, especially those who are not his loyal supporters.”