Making a campaign stop in Motihari in Bihar’s East Champaran district last Friday, Jan Suraaj chief Prashant Kishor beseeched people to vote for “good candidates”, saying people made the wrong choices earlier because of a lack of alternatives. This time, they do not have that excuse anymore, he appeared to suggest.
“For the first time in the past three decades, every constituency has a good alternative. But now, when Doctor Sahab (Jan Suraaj’s Motihari candidate Dr Atul Kumar) is roaming the streets (seeking votes), people are asking, ‘Why should we vote for you?’ They say, ‘We need a strong man’, ‘will he be able to win’, ‘what if my vote gets wasted’? Your vote has been wasted for the past 30 years … Vote for good people,” said Kishor.
The sense of nervousness apparent in the ever-so-confident Kishor’s speech underlines the challenge that his newly formed party faces in a state that values proximity and familiarity as much as larger political narratives and poll promises.
On October 2, 2022, Kishor began his 3,500 km statewide padyatra from the Gandhi Ashram in Champaran and in the years walked through more than 2,600 villages over 665 days. Yet, it is here that people, though impressed with Jan Suraaj’s political language and poll promises, are not fully confident about entrusting their vote to the party. At least, not yet.
At the Chiraiya market, about 30 km from Motihari town, mechanic Mahesh Yadav and ration dealer Ramlal Gupta, both in their 30s, discuss local politics. The two are from opposite camps: Yadav is an RJD supporter, while Gupta votes for the BJP. Yet, both are united in their praise for Jan Suraaj.
“In most constituencies, the party has fielded educated candidates. It is talking about all the right things, from children’s education to migration,” says Yadav. “Which party has the courage to say, ‘Don’t vote for my candidate if you think he is not good?’” adds Gupta.
But neither of the two is ready to put their vote where their mouth is.
“You see, in these parts, proximity of the candidate matters. It matters whether the candidate can call up the local police station or block office and get work done,” explains Yadav. “This election is for Jan Suraaj’s publicity,” says Gupta. Nodding, Yadav adds, “But by next election, Prashant Kishor will be a contender for the CM’s post.”
This is a common refrain almost everywhere across the district. Outside Gandhi Park in Motihari town, Rakesh Gupta, Rajesh Jaiswal and Chandan Yadav, in their 20s and 30s, are similarly impressed by Jan Suraaj. “It is talking about real issues. But it appears to be resonating more with the educated. Not the unlettered. People continue to be swayed by caste,” one of them says. While Gupta is a teacher, Jaiswal and Yadav are students.
Local singer Ram Prawesh Kumar, who is from the Turaha caste (Extremely Backward Class), places the matter in perspective. “Every party is built on a base (a captive caste vote). Jan Suraaj has no base,” he says.
The party, though, has admirers who will also vote for it. In Raghopur village near Chiraiya, Mikku Yadav, 35, has just returned from Hyderabad, where he works as a painter. “The party is saying something relevant. We must listen to it. (RJD founder) Lalu (Prasad) and (CM) Nitish (Kumar) have got their chance, why not give Jan Suraaj a try? I don’t care if it wins or not.”
Taxi driver Tunna Dubey, in his 30s, who joined the Jan Suraaj padyatra when it reached Motihari and stayed with it for three months, agrees. “The older generation is with the traditional parties, but the younger generation sees promise in Jan Suraaj. It is talking about the pet peeve of young people, migration. It is saying it will create job opportunities here.”
But isn’t every party discussing migration and jobs? “But then they did nothing when they were in power. It was after Kishor raised the issue that they started talking about it. He has made this into an election agenda for all parties,” he says.
There are Jan Suraaj admirers in the Muslim-dominated Banswariya and Madhopur villages, near Motihari, too. “People are impressed with the issue of migration that Jan Suraaj is raising and some of us will vote for the party,” says local Aslam Sheikh, even though most Muslims appear to have made up their minds to vote for the Mahagathbandhan and a rebel RJD leader.
Why Jan Suraaj may make an impact
This appeal of the party that cuts across caste lines makes it a potential disruptor of the electoral equations, even if it wins only a handful of seats. Most voters, including those not voting for Kishor’s party, and workers of parties such as the BJP and the RJD believe Jan Suraaj will poll 5,000 to 10,000 votes in all constituencies, if not more. In 2020, the victory margin in as many as 52 seats was less than 5,000.
Despite claims of emphasis on the educational qualifications and clean track record of the candidates, Kishor appears to have been equally concerned about the winnability factor of Jan Suraaj’s candidates and the caste arithmetic of constituencies. This has its own potential to disrupt the established electoral math.
For example, in Nautan in West Champaran, the Jan Suraaj is Santosh Chaudhary, the son of a dreaded dacoit from the region, Bhagad Yadav. With Chaudhary’s links to the Nishad community from his maternal side, quite a few Mallahs are likely to vote for him. The Mahagathbandhan would have hoped to capture this vote, having declared Mukesh Sahani its Deputy CM face.
Conversely, in Motihari, the party’s candidate Dr Atul Kumar is from the Kayasth community — generally identified with the BJP — thus disrupting the ruling alliance’s caste calculations in the seat.
But beyond this, most voters do not seem confident that the party can win on its own. Mohammed Shakeel from Madhopur puts the matter in perspective. “Their workers are working very hard. But a party is not built in a year. It will take some time. Let them work for five years, instil confidence that they mean business and are here to stay. And then I will vote for them.”
2020 results
Motihari
Winner: Pramod Kumar (BJP), winning since 2005
Runner-up: Om Prakash Chaudhary (RJD)
Margin: 14,645 votes
Nautan
Winner: Narayan Prasad (BJP)
Runner-up: Sheikh Mohammad Kamran (Congress)
Margin: 25,896 votes