Union Home Minister Amit Shah’s latest remarks about who will be the next Chief Minister of Bihar in the event of the NDA’s win in the November Assembly elections seem to be tantalising.
In reply to a question during an interview to the Aaj Tak channel, Shah, who is always measured with his words, laid out a process for selecting the CM after the polls by the NDA legislators. He however also underlined the other aspect of the story – that the NDA is heading into the elections under the leadership of incumbent CM and JD(U) chief Nitish Kumar.
Normally, when a party or an alliance contests an election under a declared leader, the latter is also expected to lead the next government in the case of a victory.
But this was not how things played out in Madhya Pradesh or Maharashtra. The BJP fought the Madhya Pradesh Assembly polls in November 2023 under the stewardship of CM Shivraj Chouhan, but his stint was not renewed despite his stature as the four-time CM who helped the party return to power by a landslide. Instead, the party replaced him with a lesser known leader Mohan Yadav at the helm.
In Maharashtra, Shiv Sena chief and then CM Eknath Shinde led the NDA or Mahayuti into the November 2024 Assembly polls. But following the incumbent coalition’s win, it was the BJP’s Devendra Fadnavis who was picked to head the new government.
Stung by the BJP’s move, Shinde, who had crossed over to the NDA after splitting the Sena and toppling the Uddhav Thackeray-led Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) government, went into a sulk, but eventually he had to eat humble pie and, in a reversal of roles, became Deputy CM under Fadnavis.
It was however the arithmetic of the Maharashtra poll outcome which tied Shinde’s hands. For the numbers were stacked in such a way that the NDA government could be formed even without him – by the BJP along with Ajit Pawar’s NCP – leaving him with no options but to fall in line.
In the context of Bihar, Shah was quick to point out that the BJP had chosen to install Nitish as the CM even when it had got more MLAs (74) than the JD-U (43) in the 2020 polls. At the same time, he flagged the “process” to be followed by the NDA allies for selection of the new CM if they return to power.
For the 2025 polls, the BJP had its way by not allowing Nitish to get more seats with both parties contesting 101 seats each. In 2020, the BJP had fought on 110 seats as against the JD(U)’s 115, which reinforced the impression about the latter having the upper hand.
Many believe that like the 2020 polls, the BJP’s strike rate is likely to be higher than that of the JD(U) in 2025 too. LJP(RV) chief Chirag Paswan, who calls himself Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s “Hanuman”, had gone solo in 2020, damaging the JD(U)’s prospects in as many as 28 seats. This time, new player Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party (JSP) may play that role.
It is hardly a secret that the BJP would like to lead a government in Bihar. It has headed governments in all the states in the Hindi heartland, barring Bihar, one of India’s most politically-conscious states.
While the BJP has chosen not to stake its claim to lead the NDA into elections this time despite being the senior ally and Nitish’s health issues, Shah’s remarks point to the possibility that the situation could change after the polls.
Oddly enough – and this is yet another example of the strange ways of Indian politics – Nitish’s “Paltu Ram” politics has turned out to be an advantage for him. In 2013, he broke ties with the BJP and in 2015, joined hands with the RJD to form a Mahagathbandhan government. He returned to the NDA in 2017. And crossed over to the Mahagathbandhan in 2022, only to be back with the NDA in 2024.
Instead of making him a political pariah, these moves have only helped Nitish retain his CM post regardless of multiple flip-flops. He has even managed to create an impression that no government in Bihar could be formed without him. Whether his party has numbers or not, he has remained at the top, which also reflects his impact on Bihar politics over the last few decades.
While Lalu Yadav’s rule socially empowered the OBCs, Nitish pushed this process by focusing on governance, earning the title of “Sushasan Babu”.
During 1987-89, it used to be a familiar sight to see both Lalu and Nitish spending hours with Sharad Yadav at his Ferozeshah Road residence in Delhi in the apparent hopes of getting a break – till Lalu got an opening and became the CM in 1990. Both leaders shaped Bihar politics for over three decades. And now, as new, younger leaders scramble to fill the space that they occupied, be it Tejashwi Yadav, Prashant Kishor or Samrat Choudhary and several others waiting in the wings, the shadows appear to be lengthening for both Lalu and Nitish.
However, unlikely to give up easily, Nitish is fighting back to retain his influence and has rolled out a slew of welfare measures before the elections, to bolster his appeal among various sections including the non-Yadav OBCs, extremely backward castes, Mahadalits and Pasmanda Muslims – and his powerful constituency of women.
Will the BJP replace Nitish with one of its own after the polls? The party is adept at managing tricky situations. The party brass has managed to win over several senior leaders who were once close to Nitish.
If the BJP does not retain him as the CM in the event of an NDA victory, “Paltu Ram” in him could always reassert. What is to prevent him from taking another U-turn to help the Mahagathbandhan form the government. This may be one of the reasons why the BJP did not replace him as the NDA’s face in the upcoming polls.
Could Nitish forge an alliance with the Mahagathbandhan again? Could the BJP lead a government with the JD(U)’s support minus Nitish by splitting the party? Could Nitish be forced to walk into the sunset? Or, would he fight the final battle of his political career if deprived of the chief ministership? The answers to all such questions will depend on the numbers the new House throws up.
The story of the Bihar polls would then be not just about the NDA vs Mahagathbandhan and the JSP’s emergence as a probable third pole. At its heart there would also be a question about Nitish-BJP play for leadership that currently remains unresolved.
(Neerja Chowdhury, Contributing Editor, The Indian Express, has covered the last 11 Lok Sabha elections. She is the author of ‘How Prime Ministers Decide’.)