Amid NDA vs INDIA, why polls may rejig lines between allies

Also tantalising is the role that the political strategist-turned-politician and Jan Suraaj Party (JSP) founder Prashant Kishore may play in the polls. He has become a household name in Bihar in the wake of his padyatras in the last few years – his poll performance would point to the spaces that still exist in our polity for new forces to break in. I have heard a refrain amid many in the state, that “Don’t dismiss him (Kishor)” or “We are now tired of old faces”.

Although it is widely known that Nitish Kumar, currently into his ninth term as the Chief Minister, has been reeling from health issues, the BJP is compelled to fight the Assembly polls under his leadership as it cannot risk Nitish again jumping ship and destablising the NDA.

On its part, the JD(U) is keen that it continues to steer the government – it has demanded one more seat than the BJP’s share. In the event of the NDA’s win, the BJP would again be forced to retain Nitish as the CM – for the same reasons why it cannot replace him now – even though leading the government in Bihar has been one of its dream projects.

The BJP leadership would not want to send Nitish scurrying into the arms of the RJD by denying him the chief ministerial chair. After all, he has changed sides on multiple occasions in the past, even enabling the Mahagathbandhan to form the government. However, everything will hinge eventually on the numbers that the next Assembly throws up.

The BJP may also stand to lose the goodwill of the constituencies still represented by Nitish if it jettisons him – of non-Yadav OBCs, Mahadalits, Pasmanda Muslims, and especially women of Bihar who have helped the JD(U) chief remain in power for two decades. The reason why the “Sushasan Babu” of old should still have a support base despite his failing health and several flip-flops, goes deeper than the purse strings he has recently opened for various welfare schemes, including the allotment of Rs 10,000 per month to one woman in each family for starting her business.

There may be a flip side to an NDA victory crafted by Nitish Kumar, as far as the BJP is concerned. It could strengthen his bargaining position vis-a-vis his senior ally in Delhi. The BJP does not have a majority of its own for its central government 3.0, and is dependent on its NDA allies such as the JD(U) [12 seats], Chandrababu Naidu’s TDP (16) , and Chirag Paswan’s LJP(RV) [4].

A Nitish in the lead role may also lead to Chirag flexing his muscles in Delhi, although now, for the Bihar polls, he will have to persuade his cadre to rally round the incumbent formation despite their bad blood with the JD(U).

On the other hand, the NDA’s defeat in Bihar, in another quirky irony of coalition politics, may actually end up bolstering the BJP’s position at the central level. With Nitish out of reckoning, the BJP may be able to get a major chunk of the JD(U) MPs to its side. It has been reaching out to them anyways, independent of Nitish.

A possible NDA setback would also put to rest the controversy over the Election Commission (EC)’s Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls in Bihar, which in the coming days will be rolled out in other states like poll-bound West Bengal. It would thus deprive Congress leader Rahul Gandhi of a key issue that he has been flagging vigorously, which has the potential to create a resonance among the people, who take their right to vote to elect their rulers seriously.

Rahul’s “Voter Adhikar Yatra” had drawn crowds across Bihar. It is unclear though as to how much traction its “vote chori” allegations would have among voters. But many are viewing Rahul with new eyes.

This Yatra was essentially a Rahul show. RJD leader Tejashawi Yadav participated in it in an apparent bid to galvanise his party’s “M-Y (Muslim Yadav)” base ahead of the electoral battle.

And yet, the response that Rahul got may have set alarm bells ringing in an RJD section. For, days after his march, Tejashawi undertook his own “Bihar Adhikar Yatra”, traversing districts not covered earlier. In this five-day Yatra, Tejashwi did not focus on the “vote chori” issue, rather highlighting the problems of unemployment, rising prices, crimes against women and alleged corruption in the Nitish government.

Was the RJD leader trying to downplay the importance of “vote chori” as a plank? Or, whether the solo march was an attempt to re-establish his primacy in the Mahagathbandhan – for the CM’s post?

Earlier, Rahul had refrained from answering the question whether Tejashawi was the grand alliance’s CM candidate, which did not go down well with the RJD’s rank and file. There may be worry within the Congress’s major INDIA bloc allies, Tejashawi as well as Samajwadi Party (SP) chief Akhilesh Yadav in Uttar Pradesh, about the former’s revival in the Hindi heartland, which could be at the expense of their parties.

Signalling Bihar’s significance for its roadmap ahead, the Congress held in Patna Wednesday a meeting of the extended Congress Working Committee (CWC) – the first huddle of the the party’s highest decision-making body in the state since 1940 – to deliberate on its poll strategy and step up attack on the BJP over alleged “vote chori”.

However, the point remains that for years the Congress has been playing a second fiddle to the RJD in Bihar, with the grand old party barely having an organisational structure that could convert goodwill into votes. It continues to be dependent on the RJD to win seats.

“Ab dekhna, Congressiyon ka dimagh kharab ho jayega! (Now you will see how Congressmen would get arrogant),” remarked a wag at the end of Rahul’s Yatra. He feared the Congress would now pressure the RJD for more seats, winnable or otherwise, in the polls.

The Congress may even use the CM issue for bargaining for seats. Amid the grand alliance’s seat-sharing negotiations for the state’s 243 seats, the Congress has asked for 70 seats, saying 27 of these are “good”. In the 2020 polls, the party had won only 19 seats of 70 it contested – its poor strike rate was among the reasons why the Mahagathbandhan failed to win the polls despite coming close to the finishing line.

Bihar is one of the most politically conscious states in the country. The Bihar movement in 1973-74 helmed by Jayaprakash Narayan led to the Emergency in 1975, which culminated in the rout of the formidable PM Indira Gandhi in 1977, and the birth of the first non-Congress government at the Centre. It also spawned new OBC leadership faces, such as Lalu Yadav and Nitish Kumar, who went on to rule Bihar for more than three decades.

All eyes are now on who will occupy the Pataliputra gaddi. And the impact of the outcome of what promises to be a hyper-local poll would be felt beyond Bihar – on the SIR’s fate in the rest of the country, the Congress’s prospects in the heartland, and the crucial question whether the BJP could still maintain its upward trajectory.

(Neerja Chowdhury, Contributing Editor, The Indian Express, has covered the last 11 Lok Sabha elections. She is the author of ‘How Prime Ministers Decide’.)