More than a year after Odisha witnessed a seismic power shift, with the BJP ousting the Biju Janata Dal (BJD) after 24 years in power, the state is set for another fierce political showdown for an upcoming bypoll that is significant in more than one way.
Following the death of sitting BJD MLA Rajendra Dholakia, 69, earlier in September, the Nuapada Assembly seat under the Kalahandi Lok Sabha constituency is headed for a bypoll, for which the Election Commission (EC) has set the ball rolling. On Monday, the EC ordered a Special Summary Revision (SSR) of the voters’ list in Nuapada, ahead of a statewide Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls, like the ongoing exercise in Bihar.
Sources in the EC said voting in Nuapada is likely to be held along with the Bihar Assembly elections, with the SSR exercise to be completed by October 9. All those turning 18 till July 1, 2025, will be included in the revised electoral rolls, with the SSR seeking to update details of the voters in Nuapada, as well as weed out names of those who have died or moved elsewhere since the last such revision, as part of the annual summary revision, in January this year.
Given the outcomes of past elections and the changing political spectrum in Odisha, the bypoll in Nuapada – which falls along the border with Chhattisgarh and has a significant tribal population – is set to be one of the most closely fought contests in recent years.
The constituency comprises two blocks – Nuapada and Komana – and two urban local bodies, in the towns of Nuapada and Khariar Road. Of its nearly 2.5 lakh voters, around 40% belong to Scheduled Tribes (STs), while there is a significant OBC population, particularly Yadavs.
It will be the first by-election for the BJD as an Opposition party, and a test of former Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik’s influence. The result will also be seen as a referendum on the 15-month-old BJP government’s performance. For the Congress, it will be the first election under its new state chief Bhakta Charan Das, who is from the nearby Kalahandi district.
The four-time sitting BJD MLA whose demise necessitated the bypoll, Dholakia came from a family originally from Gujarat, enjoyed massive popularity and dominated Nuapada politics for the past two decades, starting with his debut win in the 2004 Assembly elections. It was a remarkable feat, with Dholakia, an Independent, beating BJP strongman Basanta Panda, the sitting MLA and the BJD-BJP alliance candidate.
After the BJD-BJP alliance broke ahead of 2009 polls, Dholakia joined the BJD and retained the seat. Though Dholakia lost to Panda in 2014, he made a strong comeback to win the seat in 2019 and 2024.
For more than two decades, the politics in Nuapada centred around Dholakia and Panda, known as arch rivals. Panda, a staunch Hindutva figure, also served as the state BJP president from 2016 to 2020.
Among the early BJP leaders from the days when the party was still struggling to establish a presence in Odisha, Panda, 64, first won from Nuapada as a BJD-BJP alliance candidate in the 2000 Assembly polls. But Panda would only be reelected 14 years later, when he won the seat for the second time in 2014.
In 2019, Panda won the Lok Sabha elections from the Kalahandi seat riding the Narendra Modi wave. In 2024, after Panda declined to contest the Assembly polls, the BJP fielded his son Abhinandan from Nuapada, where he finished third.
Though the Congress had a considerable presence in Nuapada until the late 1990s, the party began losing ground in the constituency after 2000, when the BJD and BJP came to dominate the seat.
But ahead of the 2014 polls, the Congress saw hope after tribal rights activist Ghasiram Majhi joined the party. Though the Congress did not win the election, Majhi, who has a personal rapport with local tribal communities, put up a strong fight and finished third in 2014 and as the runner-up in 2019.
In 2024, when the Congress denied Majhi a ticket, then state party chief Sarat Pattanayak contested from Nuapada. Contesting as an Independent candidate, Majhi ended as the runner-up behind Dholakia, while Pattanayak placed fourth.
“Majhi, known to be someone who raises his voice for tribal causes and injustices against them, managed to consolidate tribal votes in 2024, which helped him to secure over 50,000 votes. As he is back in the Congress after Das took charge as state chief, he is most likely to be the Congress candidate,” a Nuapada local said.
Though parties are yet to finalise candidates for the bypoll, BJD sources indicated the party is likely to rope in a member of Dholakia’s family to capitalise on the sympathy factor. The BJP is most likely to repeat Abhinandan, and leave no stone unturned to win, as a defeat would be seen as a blow to its Mohan Majhi-led government.