Though not formally united, the coming together of the Thackeray cousins — Shiv Sena (UBT) president Uddhav and Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) chief Raj — after two decades, has the potential to reshape the contours of Maharashtra’s political landscape. The two, whose deteriorating relationship led to Raj Thackeray breaking away from the Sena in 2005, shared the stage at a “victory rally” on Saturday to celebrate the BJP-led Mahayuti government’s rollback on the “Hindi imposition” issue.
If the Thackeray brothers forge an alliance, here is the impact it may have on the other major political players.
Likely fallout for Shinde
The most immediate and direct impact of the cousins coming together appears to be for the Eknath Shinde camp as it threatens to erode the Deputy CM’s claim to the legacy of Shiv Sena founder Bal Thackeray and challenges his standing among core Marathi voters.
With Bal Thackeray’s son and nephew putting up a united front, Shinde is likely to have a tough time shedding the tag of “outsider” and “gaddar (traitor)”. He is likely to face a major challenge on his turf — the urban pockets of Maharashtra, especially across the Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR) — as a united Marathi regionalist platform by the brothers will be something he will struggle to match.
That the buzz of the alliance has gained momentum just ahead of the civic body polls, including in the high-stakes Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC), is also seemingly worrying Shinde, as a poor showing could severely dent his influence.
Known more for his behind-the-scenes political manoeuvring rather than his public appeal, Shinde may struggle to hold his ground as his cadre, lower-rung leaders, and grassroots workers may drift towards what is now shaping into a resurgent front led by the cousins.
Shinde’s greatest concern will be the possible erosion of his clout within the ruling alliance. While Shinde has had a strategic relationship with the Maharashtra BJP, many of its leaders view him more as a temporary ally rather than a long-term partner.
Moreover, the Uddhav-Raj alliance also threatens to strain his already fragile relationship with the BJP. A day before the Thackerays’ rally, the Deputy CM’s “Jai Gujarat” slogan in front of Union Home Minister Amit Shah in Pune was viewed as an expression of his anxiety about this possible new front.
Shinde has often found himself in the crosshairs of BJP leaders in his bid to expand his party, especially in urban municipalities, at the “expense of the BJP”. Following the BJP’s strong performance in last year’s Assembly polls, the tensions have also increased. Many believe that the BJP may now tacitly encourage the Thackerays as a strategic ploy to undercut Shinde ahead of the Assembly elections in 2029.
However, Shinde is nothing if not a political survivor who became CM by the dint of his strategic moves, outplaying former mentor Uddhav. He will now place his bets on the internal contradictions between the Thackerays and differences between the BJP’s state and central leadership to ensure he is not rendered politically dispensable.
Even in his response to the “victory rally”, Shinde targeted Uddhav but stopped shy of attacking Raj. “One expressed desire for the good of Marathi while the other spewed bile for power … That’s the difference,” he said.
Will the Thackerays challenge BJP?
Having won 132 of the state’s 288 seats in the Assembly elections last year, the BJP continues to remain the most dominant political party in Maharashtra. It has a 26.77% vote share, more than double that of the second-placed Congress, which has a vote share of 12.42%.
The possible Thackeray alliance could pose a challenge to this dominance by consolidating the Marathi voter base. However, the most immediate challenge lies in the urban and semi-urban segments of the state, where a united Thackeray front could be a hurdle in the civic body polls. Even a slight shift of voters away from the BJP in cities such as Mumbai, Thane, Pune and Nashik could seriously affect the party, which has for long tried to wrest the BMC from the Shiv Sena.
A poor showing in the civic polls could create a slippery slope, weakening the BJP’s momentum and offering the Thackeray alliance time to consolidate their gains, even though Assembly elections are far away.
The BJP also stands at the risk of being outflanked by the Thackerays on the Hindutva agenda as it may find it difficult to counter the combined appeal of Uddhav’s “soft Hindutva” and Raj’s “Marathi pride-laced with Hindutva”, a blend that may resonate strongly with core Marathi voters.
The BJP has historically maintained a position of considerable political leverage over Raj, with its relationship with the MNS marked by fluctuating proximity. Both sides engaged in a series of informal meetings before the recent flare-up over the language row erupted.
Fadnavis, like Shinde, adopted a measured tone when responding to the Saturday rally. “It was a victory rally for the Marathi language, but Uddhav chose to make it about politics and his removal from power. He’s speaking out of frustration, as they have nothing to show despite ruling the BMC for over 25 years. In contrast, we’ve delivered development to the city and worked relentlessly for the Marathi manoos in Mumbai,” he said.
However, in what may be a silver lining, a Thackeray reunion may result in non-Marathi voters rallying behind the BJP, given the visible hostility of the Thackeray alliance towards non-Marathi speakers, especially North Indian migrants.
Moreover, if a Thackeray front outperforms Shinde in the civic polls, it could also give the BJP a chance to dominate the Mahayuti at the expense of a weakened Sena, a short-term benefit.
Congress’s dilemma
The Congress faces a fresh and far more complicated challenge if Raj joins the Opposition fold. So far, the party has maintained a studied silence despite little clarity on whether the MVA would continue in its current form if the Thackeray alliance is formalised.
At the heart of the Congress’s hesitation lies Raj’s anti-migrant and anti-Muslim rhetoric that may severely undermine the Congress’s secular positioning, particularly outside Maharashtra, as it will struggle to justify sharing a platform with a party associated with violent street politics and divisive identity politics.