RECENT decisions by the AICC in Karnataka, like the appointment of Siddaramaiah to a national panel of OBC leaders and individual meetings held by Congress general secretary Randeep Singh Surjewala with party leaders in the state, indicate that the chapter on chief ministership in Karnataka may not be over yet.
CM Siddaramaiah and his Deputy D K Shivakumar returned from a two-day visit to Delhi on Friday. They did not get to meet AICC vice-president Rahul Gandhi, though Siddaramaiah had sought an appointment. Gandhi incidentally met Congress leaders from Gujarat on Thursday, but did not give an audience to the Karnataka CM.
Siddaramaiah and Shivakumar, however, met Surjewala, the Congress in-charge of Karnataka. Siddaramaiah also met Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge on his own late on Thursday.
With speculation rife that the visit would see talks on a change at the helm in Karnataka, paving way for Shivakumar as CM, Siddaramaiah asserted in Delhi before his meeting with AICC leaders Thursday that he would remain the CM for five years. He also added a caveat, like in the past, that he would abide by any decision of the Congress high command.
Shivakumar pointed to Siddaramaiah’s reply when pressed on the matter.
The talk of a change has resumed afresh as the countdown begins to November, when Siddaramaiah hits the half-way mark of his tenure – the point at which power was to pass on to Shivakumar, as per an unwritten agreement claimed by the Shivakumar camp.
Now, the appointment of Siddaramaiah to a national panel of OBC leaders and Surjewala’s string of meetings in Bengaluru suggest that the ground is being set for Siddaramaiah’s exit, if not in November then at a later date in 2026.
Given the stand Siddaramaiah has taken in public, the AICC would have to take the lead if any transition has to happen from one of Karnataka’s last mass leaders (Siddaramaiah) to a party loyalist with a businessman’s acumen (Shivakumar).
The AICC has an upper hand as of now due to the problems the Siddaramaiah government is facing, including the fallout of a recent stampede at Bengaluru Cricket Stadium recently, killing 11.
Siddaramaiah has tried to project business as usual, both during the Delhi trip and, recently, when he held up Shivakumar’s hand at a press conference in Mysuru and stated that the Congress government in Karnataka was “secure like a rock (an indirect reference to Shivakumar’s nickname, the Rock), before going on to declare that he would undoubtedly be the CM for his full-five year tenure.
However, according to Congress insiders, Siddaramaiah is holding out for time, and is likely to only ask that he remain in power till early 2026. That would make him the Karnataka CM with the longest time in the chair (seven years and 10 months), surpassing Devaraj Urs.
What could be a problem in this is that many ministers who moved to the Congress from the JD(U) with Siddaramaiah two decades back, and remain his supporters, want him to complete his full tenure. Siddaramaiah also continues to enjoy the support of a majority of the party’s 135 MLAs in the state.
Shivakumar, however, is adamant about being made the CM, and has resisted pressure by the Siddaramaiah faction to step down as PCC chief – despite holding a second post as Deputy CM – till he becomes one. With Siddaramaiah, 76, perceived to be in the sunset of his political career, 63-year-old Shivakumar is projected by his supporters as the future of the party, who could be CM candidate in the 2028 polls.
Queering the pitch
This succession plan has reportedly hit a rough patch due to Siddaramaiah’s ire over Surjewala holding individual meetings with more than a hundred Congress leaders in the state, where the CM was not present – ostensibly to gain an understanding on the functioning of his government. As Congress sources point out, the decision to send the general secretary for such talks could only have been taken at the highest level in the AICC.
Sources said that Siddaramaiah would have raised the issue with Gandhi if their meeting had happened.
Surjewala has insisted that his meetings, with Congress MLAs, MPs, MP candidates and MLCs, were not about a change of leadership but to understand the work done by legislators in their constituencies, and to examine the functioning of the Congress unit and the implementation of guarantee schemes.
“Are we taking an opinion on leadership change? The answer is clearly no,” Surjewala said last week. The talk about leadership change is “only a figment of your imagination”, he added.
Siddaramaiah has publicly said that the final call would be the high command’s. “We are in a democracy. What the high command decides will happen,” he has said.
Kharge, incidentally, also said this recently, saying the decision on CM or party president lay “in the hands of the high command”. “Nobody can say here what is going on in the high command. High command has powers… ,” Kharge said.
The OBC panel move
Apart from the AICC exercise to gauge the opinion of Congress leaders in the state, a second decision in recent weeks has indicated a slow easing out of Siddaramaiah – his appointment to a newly constituted 24-member OBC panel of the Congress.
Siddaramaiah is the only sitting Congress CM in the panel, which includes four former Congress CMs – Ashok Gehlot (Rajasthan), Bhupesh Bagel (Chhattisgarh), V Narayanaswamy (Pondicherry), Veerappa Moily (Karnataka). Another big name is former Rajasthan deputy CM Sachin Pilot.
A note by the Congress on the AICC panel said Siddaramaiah would head the panel. “A national-level advisory council has been formed under the leadership of Chief Minister Siddaramaiah to thoroughly understand the various problems faced by the communities on the Backward Classes list in the country and formulate a strategy to provide solutions to them. This advisory council will advise the AICC’s Backward Classes unit on future work plans, implementation, and issues that the Congress should take up,” the note said.
The first meeting of this National Advisory Council for Backward Classes is to be held on July 15 in Bengaluru.
Soon after the note came out, Siddaramaiah issued a clarification that he was only a member of the national OBC panel and not its chief. “I am unaware of being appointed the head. I have not sought the position,” said Siddaramaiah, who has previously made it clear that he is not interested in national politics.
For the Congress, naming him as head of the council is a way to not alienate the OBCs, with Siddaramaiah considered one of the last big leaders of backward classes, who make up a key vote base of the party in Karnataka. As part of the national council, he could be projected as a key OBC face for future polls as well, Congress leaders pointed out.