During the recent Monsoon Session of Parliament, President’s Rule in Manipur was extended for another six months.
An analysis shows that since Independence, President’s Rule has been invoked 135 times, starting with 1953, and that after its revocation, the party in power before its imposition was dethroned 87 times. Of these, 69 times followed fresh elections. In other words, nearly two-third of the time, a new party came to power after revocation of President’s Rule.
Punjab (including when parts of it were known as the Patiala and East Punjab States Union or PEPSU) has seen the most instances of the state government changing hands after President’s Rule was revoked, at seven. From the early 1970s to the late 1980s, power mostly alternated in the state between the Congress and Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD), which had the BJP as its ally, then, as they were the two dominant parties before the rise of the Aam Aadmi Party.
While Punjab saw relatively short stints of President’s Rule early on owing to political instability, it saw the longest spells in the 1980s and 1990s during the peak of militancy. Altogether, Punjab has been under President’s Rule nine times, for a total of 3,878 days, second only to J&K at 4,668 days.
In terms of the total number of times, Manipur has seen the most stints of President’s Rule, at 11, followed by Uttar Pradesh at 10. While Punjab, J&K and Manipur all fought periods of militancy, in UP, it was political instability that led to President’s Rule.
After Punjab, it is Manipur that has seen the most political shifts after periods of President’s Rule, at six times. The Congress came to power four of those times, replacing the previous ruling party or coalition. All four of these times, the previous governments fell due to resignations or defections, leading to a loss of majority in the Assembly. The other parties that came to power in this manner in Manipur were the Janata Party and the Manipur People’s Party.
President’s Rule and government changes
President’s Rule was first imposed in Manipur in 1967, ahead of elections to the then Union Territory’s first-ever Assembly. The Congress came to power with a narrow majority of one, with 16 seats in the 30-member House. Then the Speaker belonging to the Congress resigned, leaving no party with a majority. After the government collapsed, the Assembly was kept in suspended animation. By 1968, the Congress was able to form the government again without fresh elections, bringing an end to President’s Rule.
In 1972, President’s Rule was imposed for the third time in Manipur after a statehood movement turned violent. Manipur became a full-fledged state that year and in the ensuing Assembly elections, the former Congress government was ousted by a Manipur People’s Party-led coalition.
In 1977, in the post-Emergency elections where the Congress was swept out of power, the Janata Party also came to power in Manipur, after a series of defections in the Congress led to a collapse of the government and the imposition of President’s Rule. Several Congress-ruled Houses across the country were similarly dissolved by the Janata Party government.
In 1979, the Janata Party government in Manipur fell amid rising discontent within the party and corruption charges, and President’s Rule returned. In the ensuing 1980 Assembly polls, the Congress returned to power.
Uttar Pradesh and Puducherry have seen governments change six times each after President’s Rule, while Gujarat and J&K have seen such a change five times each, and Bihar, Karnataka and Kerala four times each.
Kerala was also the first state to get a non-Congress government in 1957, after the E M S Namboodiripad-led CPI came to power dethroning the Congress after a period of President’s Rule.
In 25 instances when the Assembly was dissolved despite the ruling party or coalition holding a majority, the party in power got replaced after President’s Rule. Ten such instances came in 1977, when the Janata Party government at the Centre dismissed several state governments after the Congress lost power. In 1980, when the Congress returned to power, it in turn dismissed eight state governments despite the fact that they held majorities in the Assembly.
Of the 10 states in which it dismissed state governments in 1977, the Janata Party came to power in eight, with regional parties forming the government in two. The Congress came to power in all the eight states where it dissolved the Assemblies in 1980.
In 10 cases where a different party came to power after President’s Rule was revoked, the previous governments had been dismissed owing to violence or a breakdown of law and order.
For instance, in 1992, the governments of UP, Himachal Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh were dissolved in the wake of the demolition of the Babri Masjid. In each of these states, the BJP lost power in the elections held after President’s Rule was revoked. Similarly, states like Manipur, Assam, Punjab and Nagaland saw change of government after President’s Rule was imposed owing to violent insurgencies.